Oil is the lifeblood of modern civilization, ranking alongside food as one of our most critical commodities. It drives geopolitical, economic, and financial affairs, as well as environmental debates and policymaking. As the place of oil in our global economy has evolved, so too has the way we buy and sell it, with rudimentary transactions at the wellhead developing into a sophisticated and complex global market. Yet while today's oil market bears little resemblance to the one born in the valleys and creeks of western Pennsylvania more than 150 years ago, one core feature remains: a natural tendency toward boom and bust price cycles that can devastate economies, trigger or prolong recessions, and undermine growth and investment.
Tracing a history marked with conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, Robert McNally shows how-even from the very first years of the market-wild volatility in oil prices led to intensive efforts to stabilize price fluctuations and manage supply. First Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then U.S. state regulators along with major international oil companies, and finally OPEC each enjoyed varying degrees of success in the pursuit of oil price stability. But the spectacular boom of 2008 and bust of 2015 have revealed a structural shift back to extreme oil price swings, the likes of which haven't been seen for nearly a century. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing New England oil fields to the fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility provides a crucial perspective that discards distractions and tired myths, shows lessons learned from prior mistakes, and provides the historical foundation we need to face, understand, and surmount the challenges ahead.
Industry Reviews
Robert McNally has written an excellent biography of a world-famous character, known for volatility and violent mood swings, sometimes reviled but always a player in the world economy and politics-the oil price. Insightful and timely, Crude Volatility explores the clash over many decades between "boom and bust" prices and the efforts to harness them. In the current market, McNally explains why volatility is likely to win out over stability-highly significant for what will remain the world's most important commodity for many years to come. -- Daniel Yergin, Pulitzer Prize winning author of The Prize and The Quest and Vice Chairman of IHS Markit Pioneer's strong balance sheet and successful hedging program-before and since the latest price bust-depended largely on McNally's sound advice and his outstanding grasp of oil market dynamics and OPEC. This same expertise is on display in his lively book, which will help any reader understand the history of oil markets, and how we got to where we are today. -- Scott Sheffield, CEO, Pioneer Natural Resources This is an important book. Bob McNally is the first to place shale oil in its proper historical context and explain the ramifications. His conclusions have profound implications for policymakers and the market. It would be unwise to venture out into this new and more volatile oil market without using McNally as your guide. -- Paul Horsnell, Global Head of Commodities at Standard Chartered This completely fresh viewpoint from Robert McNally is a must read for anyone involved in the oil market. The historical perspective provided in Crude Volatility is critical to understanding the future of prices and the impact they will have on the geopolitical order in years to come. Buckle up for a wild ride! -- Paul Tudor Jones, founder of Tudor Investment Corporation and the Robin Hood Foundation Splendid... McNally is both a skillful historian and an astute analyst... for readers who do not have the time to tackle Daniel Yergin's 900-page standard-bearer, The Prize (1990), Crude Volatility is a concise alternative for understanding the grand narrative of oil. -- R. Tyler Priest Wall Street Journal McNally uses history and two new oil data sets - on prices and global spare capacity - to explain that the greater the market imbalance, the wider the potential price swings, which in itself reinforces greater supply fluctuations. -- Anjli Raval Financial Times
