Critical Infrastructure Rebuild Prioritization Using Simulation Optimization

This thesis examines the importance of a critical infrastructure rebuild strategy following a terrorist attack or natural disaster such as Hurricane Katrina. Critical infrastructures are very complex and dependent systems in which their re-establishment is an essential part of the rebuilding process. A rebuild simulation model consisting of three layers (physical, information, and spatial) captures the dependency between the six critical infrastructures modeled. We employ a simulation optimization approach to evaluate rebuild prioritization combinations with a goal of minimizing the time needed to achieve an acceptable rebuild level. We use a simulated annealing heuristic as an optimization technique that works in concert with the rebuild simulation model. We test our approach with three disaster scenarios and find that the initial rebuild strategy greatly impacts the time to recover. With respect to the scenarios tested, we recommend a rebuild strategy and areas for further investigation that may be of use to disaster and emergency management organizations.

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