Climate Change

CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 1

1.1. Context 1

1.2. Identification 3

1.3. Expectations and results 5

1.4. Contents of the work 6

CHAPTER 2. CLIMATIC DATA 11

2.1. Sources 11

2.2. Global temperature 12

2.2.1. Modern temperatures 12

2.2.2. Pre-industrial temperature 13

2.2.3. Paleotemperatures 14

2.3. Concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere 17

2.4. Solar activity 18

2.5. Volcanic activity 26

CHAPTER 3. THE WAR OF THE GRAPHS 29

3.1. History 29

3.2. Inconsistent controversies 35

3.3. Usable data 38

CHAPTER 4. FORMULATING AN ENERGY BALANCE MODEL 41

4.1. State models and transmittance 41

4.2. Structure of an energy balance model 44

4.3. Specificity of EBMs 47

4.4. Dynamic parametrization 49

CHAPTER 5. PRESUMED PARAMETERS 55

5.1. Terminology 55

5.2. Climate sensitivity Sclim 57

5.3. Coefficient of radiative forcing ?'1 58

5.4. The climate feedback coefficient ?G 58

5.5. Sensitivity to irradiance S2 59

5.6. Sensitivity to volcanic activity S3 61

5.7. Climate or anthropogenic sensitivity 61

5.8. Review of uncertainties 63

CHAPTER 6. IDENTIFICATION METHOD 67

6.1. The current state of affairs 67

6.2. Output error method 69

6.3. Estimating the error variance 70

6.4. Hypothesis test and confidence regions 72

6.5. Conditions of application 73

CHAPTER 7. PARTIAL RESULTS 75

7.1. A selection of data 75

7.2. Free identification 77

7.3. Forced identifications 81

7.4. Statistical analysis 86

CHAPTER 8. OVERALL RESULTS 91

8.1. Preliminary comments 91

8.2. Regions and intervals of confidence 93

8.3. Hypothesis test 96

8.4. Comments 97

CHAPTER 9. HISTORIC MINUSCULE SIMULATIONS 99

9.1. Overview of IPCC simulations 99

9.2. Comparative simulations 100

9.3. Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 102

9.4. Comparative radiative forcing 105

CHAPTER 10. LONG-TERM CLIMATE PROJECTIONS 107

10.1. IPCC scenarios and projections 107

10.2. EBM compatible scenarios 109

10.3. Long-term projections 110

10.4. A disaster scenario 113

CHAPTER 11. SHORT-TERM PREDICTIONS 115

11.1. Decadal time scale predictions by GCM 115

11.2. The climateâs natural variability 117

11.3. State estimate and prediction 120

11.4. Decadal time scale predictions by EBM 123

11.5. A posteriori predictions 124

CHAPTER 12. CONCLUSIONS 129

12.1. On the identification 129

12.2. Climate sensitivity 130

12.3. Solar activity 131

12.4. Predictive capacity 132

12.5. The climate change in question 133

12.6. Prospects 133

BIBLIOGRAPHY 135

INDEX 141