China Coup

An expertâs take on how a coup in China could launch a transition to democracy.

This short book predictsâ"contrary to the prevailing consensusâ"that Chinaâs leader Xi Jinping will very soon be removed from office in a coup dâ©tat mounted by rivals in the top leadership. The leaders of the coup will then end Chinaâs one-party dictatorship and launch a transition to democracy and the rule of law. Long-time diplomat and development banker Roger Garside draws on his deep knowledge of Chinese politics and economics first to develop a detailed scenario of how these events may unfold, and thenâ"in the main body of the bookâ"to explain why. His gripping, persuasive account of how Chinese leaders plot and plan away from the public eye is unique in published literature. 

Garside argues that under Xiâs overconfident leadership, China is on a collision course with an America that is newly awakened out of complacency. As Xiâs rivals look abroad, they are alarmed that he is blind to the reactions that Chinaâs actions have provoked from the worldâs strongest power and its allies. In domestic affairs, Xiâs rivals recognize that economic and social change without political reform have created problems that require not just new leaders but a new system of government. Security abroad and stability at home demand a revolution to which Xi is implacably opposed. To save Chinaâ"and themselvesâ"from catastrophe, they must remove him and end the dictatorship he is determined to defend. But their will and capacity to do so depend crucially on how liberal democracies act. Garsideâs scenario shows America leading its allies in creating the conditions in which Xiâs rivals move against him.