Boreal Forests Under Global Warming

FOREWORD
INTRODUCTION
Chapter 1. EMPIRICAL-SIMULATION PREDICTEV MODELING
IN THE GEOGRAPHICAL ECOLOGY (Framework Concept)
1.1. Introductory Provisions
1.2. Strategy of scientific and methodological search
1.3. Originality of the concept
1.4. The novelty of given scientific search
1.5. Numerical methods of landscape-ecological forecasts
Chapter 2. LANDSCAPE-ECOLOGICAL STRATEGY FOR GROUND GEOECOLOGICAL MONITORING OF THE FORESTS
2.1. Regional ecology and problem of global changes
2.2. Current state of the concept of geo-ecological monitoring in
a changing climate
2.3. Bioclimatic zonality as an object of ecological-geographical
research
2.4. Zonal structure of East-European sub-continent
2.5. Some inferences
Chapter 3. BOREAL GEOGRAPHICAL ECOTONE IN THE NORTHERN EURASIA
3.1. The main provisions for the theory of geographical ecotones
3.2. Boreal ecotone of the East-European Plain as a landscape-
ecological system
3.3. The boreal ecotone as a natural âfast-flowingâ model of global
change
3.4. Functioning of geo(eco-)systems as an object of the ecological
monitoring
3.5. Environmentally sustainability
3.6. Strategy of science search
3.5. Some inferences
Chapter 4. METHODS OF LOCAL AND REGIONAL LANDSCAPE-ECOLOGICAL MODELING
4.1. Introductory remarks
4.2. General features of landscape ecological modeling
4.3. Mono-system information-statistical models
4.4. Typical schemes of binary ordination
4.5. Poly-system fuzzy-set-theoretical models
4.6. Integral parameters of mono- and poly-system organization of
natural complexes
4.7. Distinguishing of forest biogeocoenosis eco-types
4.8. Representation of calculating predictive climatic models
Chapter 5. REGIONAL AND LOCAL GEOSYSTEMS AS THE OBJECTS OF PREDICTIVE RESEARCH
5.1. Introductory notes
5.3. Ground empirical material for modeling
5.3.1. Landscape structure of the nature zones
5.3.2. Regional bioclimatic system
5.3.3. Experimental test sites
5.3.4. System of local and regional landscape coupling
5.3.5. Large-scale landscape-ecological surveys
5.4. Parameters of the biological cycle as indicators of ecosystem
sustainability
5.5. The importance of studying local geo(eco)systems for
landscape-ecological forecasts
Chapter 6. HYDRO-CLIMATIC SYSTEM OF THE VOLGA RIVER
BASIN AND ITS ENCIRCLEMENT
6.1. Chain reactions in the regional landscape-geophysical relations
6.2. Methods for calculating landscape-geophysical characteristics
6.3. Space relations of temperature and precipitation
6.4. Regional scenarios of primary bio-productivity change in the
system of background climatic fluctuations
Chapter 7. LANDSCAPE-GEOPHYSICAL FOUNDATIONS OF
ECOLOGICAL PROGNOSES
7.1. Functional ordination of forest ecosystems according to arid
climatic trend
7.1.1. Introductory remarks
7.1.2. Ergodic system of nature complexes
7.1.3. Hydro-thermal ordination of biological cycle parameters
7.1.4. Empirical simulation of climate-genic changes in the
biological cycle
7.2. Regional and local humidity factors and their significance for
ecological prognoses
7.2.1. Issues of the problem and basic materials
7.2.2. The space diversity of annual atmospheric humidity factor
7.2.3. Edaphic humidity factor and the methods of its calculation
7.2.4. Local coefficient of common humidification
7.3. Humidity factors and levels functioning of geo(eco-)system
7.4. Hydro-edaphic conditions of the critical states of forest eco-
systems
7.5. The predictive estimates od edaphic humidity changes and their
ecological effect
7.5. Some inferences
Chapter 8. PECULIARITY OF LANDSCAPE-ECOLOGICAL FORECASTIGS
8 1. The ways of development of regional prediction concept
8.2. Landscape-ecological system as an object of predictive modeling
8.3. Ideological foundations and strategy of predictive research
Chapter 9. EMPIRICAL-SIMULATION PREDICTIVE MODELING OF FOREST ECOSYSTEMS
9.1. The value of empirical simulation in landscape-ecological forecasts
9.2. Statistical analysis of functional biogeocoenotic relationships
9.3. Ordination as a basis for empirical-statistical modeling
9.4. Local empirical simulation of the regional climatic trend
9.5. Polyzonality of local ecosystems as a way of reresponse to climate
change
9.6. The principle of optimality in the functioning of ecosystems
9.7. The driving forces of climate-genic successions
Chapter 10. REGIONAL LANDSCAPE-ECOLOGICAL PROGNOSES
10.1. Analytic methods of landscape-ecological prognoses
10.1.1. Evaluate of probabilities of changes in the functional states
of ecosystems
10.1.2. Algorithm of predictive calculations
10.1.3. Calculations of the rates of ecosystem transformations
10.2. Prognoses of functional changes of plant formations
10.2.1. Main features of climatic prognosis in the region
10.2.2. Forecasting changes in the functional states of plant formations
10.2.3. Dynamics of biological cycle parameters in zonal-regional
ecosystems
10.3. Modern regional analogues of predicted landscape-ecological
situations under global warming
10.4. Main inference
Chapter 11. CARTOGRAPHIC MODELS OF REGIONAL
LANDSCAPE-ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING
11.1. Ideological foundations of predictive research
11.2. Predictive mapping of focal landscape transformations
11.3. Analytical and cartographic assessment of inductive landscape
transformation
11.4. Brief analysis of forecast scenarios
11.4. Main inference
Сhapter 12. LOCAL LANSCAPE-ECOLOGICAL PROGNOSES
12.1. The ideology of local environmental forecasting
12.2. Prerequisites of research
12.3. Empirical materials
12.4. Polyzonality of local ecosystem as a way of their reaction on the
global climatic signals
12.5. The main characteristics of climate prediction
12.6. Prediction procedure
12.7. Prognostic scenarios of transformation of forest ecosystems
12.7.1. Changes of the soil moisture content
12.7.2. Climate-genic dynamic of the forest biogeocoenoses
12.8. Main inferences
Chapter 13. PHYTOCOENOTIC AND SOIL SIGNS OF CURRENT GLOBAL WARMING
13.1. Main features of the climatic trend
13.2. General changes in soil-plant cover
13.3. Phytocoenotic changes at the Main landscape Border of the
Russian Plain
13.4. Phytoecological effect of enhanced non-stationarity of the
Nlimate
13.5. Main inferences
Chapter 14. MECHANISMS OF STABILITY OF FOREST ECOSYSTEMS
14.1. Problem status
14.2. Analytical modeling of the stability of forest biogeocoenoses
14.2.1. Labile phytocoenotic resistance
14.2.2. Inertial soil-biotic stability
14.3. Stability of forest biogeocoenoses in cartographic terms
14.4. Models of stability for forest formations
14.5. Main inferences
Chapter 15. THE ROLE OF BOREAL FORESTS IN REGULATION THE CARBON CYCLE AND MITIGATING MODERN GLOBAL WARMING
15.1. Adaptation and mitigation is the final stage of geoecological
monitoring
15.2. The concept of ecological resources of forests in the regulation of the
carbon cycle
. 15.3. Carbon balance of forest ecosystems for different climate trends
15.3. 1. The general trends and objectives of research
15.3.2 Methods of prognostic analysis
15.3.3. The carbon balance of forest ecosystems predicted for
different climatic trends
15.3.4. Mapping predictive scenarios of the carbon balance
15.4. Ecological resources of restored primary forests of the Volga River
basin
15.5. Verification of predictive calculations of the carbon balance
15.6. Toward the solution of the dual problem of adsorption and adaptation
(in accordance with the Paris Agreement)
15.8. Main inferences
CONCLUSION
SUPPLEMENTS. LIST OF THE SIGNS FOR MODELING
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