| An Introduction to R | p. 1 |
| Overview | p. 1 |
| Exploring a Student Dataset | p. 1 |
| Introduction to the Dataset | p. 1 |
| Reading the Data into R | p. 2 |
| R Commands to Summarize and Graph a Single Batch | p. 2 |
| R Commands to Compare Batches | p. 5 |
| R Commands for Studying Relationships | p. 6 |
| Exploring the Robustness of the t Statistic | p. 8 |
| Introduction | p. 8 |
| Writing a Function to Compute the t Statistic | p. 9 |
| Programming a Monte Carlo Simulation | p. 10 |
| The Behavior of the True Significance Level Under Different Assumptions | p. 11 |
| Further Reading | p. 13 |
| Summary of R Functions | p. 14 |
| Exercises | p. 15 |
| Introduction to Bayesian Thinking | p. 19 |
| Introduction | p. 19 |
| Learning About the Proportion of Heavy Sleepers | p. 19 |
| Using a Discrete Prior | p. 20 |
| Using a Beta Prior | p. 22 |
| Using a Histogram Prior | p. 26 |
| Prediction | p. 28 |
| Further Reading | p. 34 |
| Summary of R Functions | p. 34 |
| Exercises | p. 35 |
| Single-Parameter Models | p. 39 |
| Introduction | p. 39 |
| Normal Distribution with Known Mean but Unknown Variance | p. 39 |
| Estimating a Heart Transplant Mortality Rate | p. 41 |
| An Illustration of Bayesian Robustness | p. 44 |
| Mixtures of Conjugate Priors | p. 49 |
| A Bayesian Test of the Fairness of a Coin | p. 52 |
| Further Reading | p. 57 |
| Summary of R Functions | p. 57 |
| Exercises | p. 58 |
| Multiparameter Models | p. 63 |
| Introduction | p. 63 |
| Normal Data with Both Parameters Unknown | p. 63 |
| A Multinomial Model | p. 66 |
| A Bioassay Experiment | p. 69 |
| Comparing Two Proportions | p. 75 |
| Further Reading | p. 80 |
| Summary of R Functions | p. 80 |
| Exercises | p. 81 |
| Introduction to Bayesian Computation | p. 87 |
| Introduction | p. 87 |
| Computing Integrals | p. 88 |
| Setting Up a Problem in R | p. 89 |
| A Beta-Binomial Model for Overdispersion | p. 90 |
| Approximations Based on Posterior Modes | p. 94 |
| The Example | p. 95 |
| Monte Carlo Method for Computing Integrals | p. 97 |
| Rejection Sampling | p. 98 |
| Importance Sampling | p. 101 |
| Introduction | p. 101 |
| Using a Multivariate t as a Proposal Density | p. 103 |
| Sampling Importance Resampling | p. 105 |
| Further Reading | p. 105 |
| Summary of R Functions | p. 109 |
| Exercises | p. 110 |
| Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods | p. 117 |
| Introduction | p. 117 |
| Introduction to discrete Markov Chains | p. 117 |
| Metropolis-Hastings Algorithms | p. 120 |
| Gibbs Sampling | p. 122 |
| MCMC Output Analysis | p. 122 |
| A Strategy in Bayesian Computing | p. 124 |
| Learning About a Normal Population from Grouped Data | p. 124 |
| Example of Output Analysis | p. 129 |
| Modeling Data with Cauchy Errors | p. 131 |
| Analysis of the Stanford Heart Transplant Data | p. 140 |
| Further Reading | p. 145 |
| Summary of R Functions | p. 146 |
| Exercises | p. 147 |
| Hierarchical Modeling | p. 153 |
| Introduction | p. 153 |
| Three Examples | p. 153 |
| Individual and Combined Estimates | p. 155 |
| Equal Mortality Rates? | p. 157 |
| Modeling a Prior Belief of Exchangeability | p. 161 |
| Posterior Distribution | p. 163 |
| Simulating from the Posterior | p. 163 |
| Posterior Inferences | p. 168 |
| Shrinkage | p. 168 |
| Comparing Hospitals | p. 169 |
| Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis | p. 171 |
| Posterior Predictive Model Checking | p. 173 |
| Further Reading | p. 175 |
| Summary of R Functions | p. 175 |
| Exercises | p. 176 |
| Model Comparison | p. 181 |
| Introduction | p. 181 |
| Comparison of Hypotheses | p. 181 |
| A One-Sided Test of a Normal Mean | p. 182 |
| A Two-Sided Test of a Normal Mean | p. 185 |
| Comparing Two Models | p. 186 |
| Models for Soccer Goals | p. 187 |
| Is a Baseball Hitter Really Streaky? | p. 190 |
| A Test of Independence in a Two-Way Contingency Table | p. 194 |
| Further Reading | p. 199 |
| Summary of R Functions | p. 199 |
| Exercises | p. 201 |
| Regression Models | p. 205 |
| Introduction | p. 205 |
| Normal Linear Regression | p. 205 |
| The Model | p. 205 |
| The Posterior Distribution | p. 206 |
| Prediction of Future Observations | p. 206 |
| Computation | p. 207 |
| Model Checking | p. 207 |
| An Example | p. 208 |
| Model Selection Using Zellner's Prior | p. 217 |
| Survival Modeling | p. 222 |
| Further Reading | p. 227 |
| Summary of R Functions | p. 227 |
| Exercises | p. 229 |
| Gibbs Sampling | p. 235 |
| Introduction | p. 235 |
| Robust Modeling | p. 236 |
| Binary Response Regression with a Probit Link | p. 240 |
| Missing Data and Gibbs Sampling | p. 240 |
| Proper Priors and Model Selection | p. 243 |
| Estimating a Table of Means | p. 248 |
| Introduction | p. 248 |
| A Flat Prior Over the Restricted Space | p. 250 |
| A Hierarchical Regression Prior | p. 254 |
| Predicting the Success of Future Students | p. 259 |
| Further Reading | p. 260 |
| Summary of R Functions | p. 260 |
| Exercises | p. 261 |
| Using R to Interface with WinBUGS | p. 265 |
| Introduction to WinBUGS | p. 265 |
| An R Interface to WinBUGS | p. 266 |
| MCMC Diagnostics Using the coda Package | p. 267 |
| A Change-Point Model | p. 268 |
| A Robust Regression Model | p. 272 |
| Estimating Career Trajectories | p. 276 |
| Further Reading | p. 281 |
| Exercises | p. 282 |
| References | p. 287 |
| Index | p. 293 |
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