1. Policy Challenges in a World of Nonlinearity and Structural Change.- and Main Assumptions and Problem Sets.- New Thinking for New Times.- The Newtonian Paradigm.- The New Paradigm.- What is Policymaking?.- Policy Reality.- Cognitive/Emotional Models of Policymakers and Decisionmakers.- Do Policymakers and Decisionmakers Necessarily Think Systemically?.- Is Systems Thinking Easily Developed?.- A Simple Mathematical Model of Nonlinearity.- Structural Change the Kondratiev and Hegemonic Cycles/Structures and the Life Cycle of the Present Stage of World.- Civilization.- The Kondratiev Cycle/Structure.- The Hegemonic Cycle/Structure.- The Life Cycle of the Present Stage of World Civilization.- Let the Policy Fit the Time.- Limited, Incorrect, or Failed Past Policies.- Conclusions and Recommendations-Policy Guidance.- References.- 2. Policy in a World of Evolution, Learning, and Ignorance.- Application of Inappropriate "Scientific" Theories to the Human Domain.- Real Complexity and the Idea of Rational Policymaking and Decisionmaking Are Incompatible.- On the Deficiencies of Economic "Science".- The Separation and Isolation of Expertise.- The Scientific Handling of Change, and Levels of Description.- The Mechanical and Organic Open-Systems Paradigms Further Contrasted.- Evolutionary Drive.- Positive-Feedback Traps.- Competition of Closely Similar Activities.- Applications for Policy Exploration: From Settlement To Finance.- Spatial Economics and Settlement Patterns.- Evolutionary Economics.- Management of Natural Resources.- Discussion.- References.- 3. Adaptive Control and Conflict Resolution for International Stability.- Getting from Here (1992) to There (2000).- Overview of International Stability and Conflict Resolution Issues.- Present Period Is One of Rapid World Change.- Changes from the Past Are Possible in the Future.- Methodology Needed for Constructive Change.- Clearer Understanding of International Stability Needed.- Peace/War/Peace Process Understanding Needed.- Different Value Systems and Bases for Judging Nations Exist.- Role of Closed-Loop Concepts in Steering Nations to the Future.- Adaptive and Predictive Aspects of Guiding Nations.- Roles of References, Constraints, Perceptions, and Ideology.- Conflict Resolution for Settling Disputes.- Education to Facilitate Change.- A Cooperative Security System.- Work Breakdown Structure of Activities.- Obstacles to Peace.- The Peace/War/Peace Process and Some of its Elements.- Frameworks.- International Stability and Peace.- What Is Peace?.- Negative Peace.- Stable Peace.- Unstable Peace.- Positive Peace.- Nation Block Diagrams.- Perceptions.- Peace/War/Peace Time (Activity) Cycle.- Normal, Alert, or Emergency Conditions of International Policymaking and Decision-Making.- Adaptive Control Features for International Relationships.- Basic Assumptions about the International System and Conflict.- International System Is Made Up of Sovereign States.- International Conflicts Are Inevitable.- There Are Organized Procedures for Resolving Conflicts.- Potential Areas for Conflict Needing Resolution Can Be Identified.- Measurement Means and Criteria for Monitoring Can Be Found.- Various Possible Alternative Actions Can Be Explored.- Incentives and Motivations for Peace Can Be Developed.- Elements of Conflict Resolution.- The Eight Elements in Order of Use.- Potential Areas for International Conflict.- Progress Toward International Stability and Peace.- Common Security Objectives.- Influence of the Past, Present, and Future on National Attitudes.- Decrease the Likelihood of War, Increase the Likelihood of Peace.- What is to be Done Now?.- Conclusions.- References.- 4. Field-Theoretic Framework for Systems Theory and Systems Thinking.- The Nature and History of Field Theory Applied to Nonliving and Living Systems.- Nonliving Systems.- Living Systems.- Alternative or Complementary Perspectives on.- Field Theory and on World Systems.- The Aftermath of Lewin's Field Theory.- World Systems.- Synopsis and Interfacing of Current Systems Theories.- Stability Theories.- Synergetics.- Dissipative-Structure Theory.- Catastrophe Theory.- Cybernetics and System Dynamics.- Deterministic Chaos.- Field-Theoretic Principles.- Faith, Ideology, Science, and Religion.- The Acceptance of New Paradigms.- Some Comments on the Status Quo.- Guided Structural Change in the World System Field.- Are We Near One of the Great Bifurcation Points of History?.- Final Remarks.- References.- 5. School for Rulers.- Contemplating the Taboo: Rulers Must Learn.- Premises and Thesis.- Rulers Matter a Lot.- Rulers Must Know a Lot.- Nearly All Rulers Lack Essential Knowledge.- Rulers Need Schools.- Ideological and Structural Hurdles.- Ideological Hurdles.- Structural Hurdles.- Design of a School For Rulers.- Policy versus Politics.- On Professionalism.- Overall Design Approach.- Terms of Study.- Entrance Prerequisites.- Languages, Tools, and Literacy.- Base Disciplines.- Knowing, Understanding, and Outlooking Reality.- The Future Between Necessity, Contingency, Chance, and Choice.- Policymaking Realities and Pathologies.- Policy Analysis Methods and Techniques.- Grand Policy Thinking.- Value Analysis and Moral Reasoning.- The Ruler's "I".- Clinical Learning.- Rulership Equipment and Skills.- Back to Reality: Practical Recommendations.- Write Texts for Rulers and Prepare Other Self-learning Tools for Them.- Improve On-the-Job Learning.- Provide Intensive Workshops and Courses.- Grant Sabbaticals.- Epilogue.- References.- 6. Policy: Appearance and Reality.- Introduction: Overview of "Problems" and "Solutions".- Concepts and Definitions of Policy.- Policy Compared to Strategy.- Distinctive Problems of Policy Formulation.- Conceptualization.- Construction of Adequate Policy Statements.- Critical Criteria.- Institutional Supports.- In Brief Summary.- A Systems-Theoretic Interpretation.- Systems Definitions of Policymaking and Strategic Planning.- Four World Hypotheses.- Limitations of Formism and Formal Rational Models.- Policy Expertise, and Rationality Revisited.- Challenges and Recommendations.- References.- 7. System Dynamics and the Lessons of 35 Years.- Designing Managerial and Social Systems.- A New Education for Corporate and Government Leaders.- Modeling for What Purpose?.- Unifying Knowledge.- Enhancing Mental Models.- Small Models versus Large Models.- The System Dynamics Paradigm.- Endogenous Behavior.- Sources of Information.- Learning From Models.- Surprise Discoveries.- General Characteristics of Systems 229 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PUBLIC RESPONSES.- A New Basis for Pre-College Education.- References.- 8. Whole-System Concepts in Societal Transformation.- Signs of A Fundamental Transformation.- The Global Dilemmas.- Changing Values.- Shifting Basic Premises.- Nature of the Transformation.- Policies for Whole-System Transformation.- The Whole-System Nature of Global Problems.- Characteristics of the Evolving System.- Identifying Appropriate Policy Choices.- The Example of Policy Relating to Work.- Concluding Observations.- Arriving at Appropriate Policies.- References and Suggested Reading.- 9. Breaking out of the Systems Quandary.- The Systems Quandary.- On Systems Theory.- Systems Craft.- Critiques.- Summing Up.- Breaking Out.- On Theory: Develop Deeper Insights About Complex System Behavior.- On Praxis: Rethink the Task of the Systems Craft.- Systems and Communication.- Systems and Ethics.- Final Words.- References.- 10. Decision Management, Then and Now, 1790, 1890, and 1990: Selected Scenario Models.- Some Definitions and Limitations.- Definitions of Terms.- Limitations to Knowledge.- A Basic Decision-And-Command Management Model.- Decision-and-Command Management.- Further Definitions.- Mere Scenarios?.- Two Brief Scenario Models.- The Capital at Washington.- Deciding upon a Police Force for Japan.- Decisionmaking in the Gulf Crisis/War: Events of 1990-1991.- Historical Background.- Forms and Dimensions of Conflict.- Capability, Credibility, Relevance, and Legitimacy.- Spread of Involvement to Many Countries.- On the Nature of Leadership.- Further Entangling Relations.- The Environmental Dimension.- Policy and Strategic Limitations of the United States.- Iraqi Motives Are Varied, Complex.- A Standard View of Iraqi Motivations?.- Transcultural Political Error.- The Israel Factor.- The Religious-Archeological Factor.- How the Adversaries Manipulated Political Forces.- The Specter of Weapons of Mass Destruction.- The Terrorism Variable.- Fidelity of Model.- Tracing the Steps of the Model.- Once the Decision Was Taken.- Significance of the Gulf Episode.- Systemic Implications.- The Enigmatic Superweapons.- An Enigma Becomes Less Perplexing.- More Puzzling Questions from All Sides.- Were the Decisions Made Homogeneously?.- A Repetition of the Past.- The Future Role of the UN.- A Shift in Political Paradigm?.- Conclusions.- References.
