Structural Performance

Preface . xi

Chapter 1. Concepts from Probability Theory and Statistics 1

1.1. The role of probability in civil engineering 1

1.2. Physical and statistical uncertainties 2

1.3. Axiomatics 3

1.4. Random variables â" distributions 8

1.5. Useful random variables 21

1.6. Limit theorems 31

1.7. Modeling random variables 38

1.8. Distribution of extremes 51

1.9. Significance testing 58

1.10. Bayesian analysis 65

1.11. Stochastic processes 74

Chapter 2. Structural Safety, Performance and Risk 81

2.1. Introduction 81

2.2. Safety and risk 82

2.3. Risk evaluation and acceptable risk 87

2.4. Risk-based management 96

2.5. Examples of failure: bridges 105

2.6. From safety to performance 110

2.7. Human errors 122

Chapter 3. Performance-based Assessment 125

3.1. Analysis methods and structural safety 125

3.2. Safety and performance principles 134

3.3. Invariant measures 136

3.4. Reliability theory 138

3.5. General formulation 150

3.6. System reliability 187

3.7. Determination of collapse/failure mechanisms 208

3.8. Calibration of partial factors 217

3.9. Nature of a probabilistic calculation 224

3.10. Failure probabilities and acceptable risks 225

Chapter 4. Structural Assessment of Existing Structures 235

4.1. Introduction 235

4.2. Assessment rules 236

4.3. Limits when using design rules 236

4.4. Main stages in structural assessment 237

4.5. Structural safety assessment 239

4.6. General remarks on the methods 260

Chapter 5. Specificities of Existing Structures 261

5.1. Loads 261

5.2. Resistance 331

5.3. Geometric variability 348

5.4. Scale effects 351

Chapter 6. Principles of Decision Theory 355

6.1. Introduction 355

6.2. The decision model 356

6.3. Controls and inspections 364

6.4. Maintenance optimization 384

6.5. Life cycle cost analysis 391

6.6. Maintenance strategies 403

Bibliography 413

Index 423