Preface xi
List of Figures xv
List of Tables xxv
Part I On Problem Solving, Computational Red Teaming, and Simulation 1
1. Problem Solving, Simulation, and Computational Red Teaming 3
1.1 Introduction 3
1.2 Problem Solving 4
1.3 Computational Red Teaming and Self-‘Verification and Validation’ 8
2. Introduction to Fundamentals of Simulation 11
2.1 Introduction 11
2.2 System 14
2.3 Concepts in Simulation 17
2.4 Simulation Types 21
2.5 Tools for Simulation 23
2.6 Conclusion 24
Part II Before Simulation Starts 25
3. The Simulation Process 27
3.1 Introduction 27
3.2 Define the System and its Environment 27
3.3 Build a Model 29
3.4 Encode a Simulator 30
3.5 Design Sampling Mechanisms 32
3.6 Run Simulator Under Different Samples 33
3.7 Summarise Results 33
3.8 Make a Recommendation 34
3.9 An Evolutionary Approach 35
3.10 A Battle Simulation by Lanchester Square Law 35
4. Simulation Worldview and Conflict Resolution 57
4.1 Simulation Worldview 57
4.2 Simultaneous Events and Conflicts in Simulation 64
4.3 Priority Queue and Binary Heap 68
4.4 Conclusion 72
5. The Language of Abstraction and Representation 73
5.1 Introduction 73
5.2 Informal Representation 75
5.3 Semi-formal Representation 76
5.4 Formal Representation 82
5.5 Finite-state Machine 86
5.6 Ant in Maze Modelled by Finite-state Machine 89
5.7 Conclusion 99
6. Experimental Design 101
6.1 Introduction 101
6.2 Factor Screening 103
6.3 Metamodel and Response Surface 113
6.4 Input Sampling 116
6.5 Output Analysis 117
6.6 Conclusion 120
Part III Simulation Methodologies 121
7. Discrete Event Simulation 123
7.1 Discrete Event Systems 123
7.2 Discrete Event Simulation 126
7.3 Conclusion 142
8. Discrete Time Simulation 143
8.1 Introduction 143
8.2 Discrete Time System and Modelling 145
8.3 Sample Path 148
8.4 Discrete Time Simulation and Discrete Event Simulation 149
8.5 A Case Study: Car-following Model 151
8.6 Conclusion 154
9. Continuous Simulation 157
9.1 Continuous System 157
9.2 Continuous Simulation 159
9.3 Numerical Solution Techniques for Continuous Simulation 164
9.4 System Dynamics Approach 172
9.5 Combined Discrete–continuous Simulation 174
9.6 Conclusion 176
10. Agent-based Simulation 179
10.1 Introduction 179
10.2 Agent-based Simulation 181
10.3 Examples of Agent-based Simulation 185
10.4 Conclusion 194
Part IV Simulation and Computational Red Teaming Systems 197
11. Knowledge Acquisition 199
11.1 Introduction 199
11.2 Agent-enabled Knowledge Acquisition: Core Processes 202
11.3 Human Agents 203
11.4 Human-inspired Agents 208
11.5 Machine Agents 211
11.6 Summary Discussion and Perspectives on Knowledge Acquisition 215
12. Computational Intelligence 219
12.1 Introduction 219
12.2 Evolutionary Computation 223
12.3 Artificial Neural Networks 232
12.4 Conclusion 239
13. Computational Red Teaming 241
13.1 Introduction 241
13.2 Computational Red Teaming: The Challenge Loop 242
13.3 Computational Red Teaming Objects 243
13.4 Computational Red Teaming Purposes 244
13.5 Objectives of Red Teaming Exercises in Computational Red Teaming Purposes 245
13.6 Discovering Biases 246
13.7 Computational Red Teaming Lifecycle: A Systematic Approach to Red Teaming Exercises 247
13.8 Conclusion 251
Part V Simulation and Computational Red Teaming Applications 253
14. Computational Red Teaming for Battlefield Management 255
14.1 Introduction 255
14.2 Battlefield Management Simulation 256
14.3 Conclusion 261
15. Computational Red Teaming for Air Traffic Management 263
15.1 Introduction 263
15.2 Air Traffic Simulation 263
15.3 A Human-in-the-loop Application 270
15.4 Conclusion 271
16. Computational Red Teaming Application for Skill-based Performance Assessment 273
16.1 Introduction 273
16.2 Cognitive Task Analysis-based Skill Modelling and Assessment Methodology 274
16.3 Sudoku and Human Players 276
16.4 Sudoku and Computational Solvers 280
16.5 The Proposed Skill-based Computational Solver 283
16.6 Discussion of Simulation Results 293
16.7 Conclusions 300
17. Computational Red Teaming for Driver Assessment 301
17.1 Introduction 301
17.2 Background on Cognitive Agents 303
17.3 The Society of Mind Agent 306
17.4 Society of Mind Agents in an Artificial Environment 312
17.5 Case Study 325
17.6 Conclusion 330
18. Computational Red Teaming for Trusted Autonomous Systems 333
18.1 Introduction 333
18.2 Trust for Influence and Shaping 334
18.3 The Model 335
18.4 Experiment Design and Parameter Settings 342
18.5 Results and Discussion 344
18.6 Conclusion 347
A. Probability and Statistics in Simulation 349
A.1 Foundation of Probability and Statistics 349
A.2 Useful Distributions 369
A.3 Mathematical Characteristics of Random Variables 390
A.4 Conclusion 396
B Sampling and Random Numbers 397
B.1 Introduction 397
B.2 Random Number Generator 400
B.3 Testing Random Number Generators 408
B.4 Approaches to Generating Random Variates 413
B.5 Generating Random Variates 416
B.6 Monte Carlo Method 423
B.7 Conclusion 432
Bibliography 435
Index 459
