Quantitative Intelligence Analysis

Applied Analytic Models, Simulations, and Games

By: Edward Waltz

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eText | 16 October 2014 | Edition Number 1

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Quantitative Intelligence Analysis describes the model-based method of intelligence analysis that represents the analyst’s mental models of a subject, as well as the analyst’s reasoning process exposing what the analyst believes about the subject, and how they arrived at those beliefs and converged on analytic judgments. It includes:

Specific methods of explicitly representing the analyst’s mental models as computational models;
Dynamic simulations and interactive analytic games;
The structure of an analyst’s mental model and the theoretical basis for capturing and representing the tacit knowledge of these models explicitly as computational models detailed description of the use of these models in rigorous, structured analysis of difficult targets;
Model illustrations and simulation descriptions;
The role of models in support of collection and operations;
Case studies that illustrate a wide range of intelligence problems;
And a recommended curriculum for technical analysts.

Industry Reviews

Synoptic, erudite, authoritative, and useful, Quantitative Intelligence Analysis by Ed Waltz is a major contribution to our understanding of both how intelligence analysts think and how that thinking can be improved, not replaced, by advanced analytic methodologies.