Contest for the Indo-Pacific: Why China Won't Map the Future

The definitive guide to the world's most contested region

Updated edition covering the strategic impacts of Covid-19, China's economic coercion against Australia, the Afghanistan withdrawal, Joe Biden, the Quad and US-China rivalry.


The Indo-Pacific is both a place and an idea. It is the region central to global prosperity and security. It is also a metaphor for collective action. If diplomacy fails, it will be the theatre of the first general war since 1945. But if its future can be secured, the Indo-Pacific will flourish as a shared space, the centre of gravity in a connected world.

What we call different parts of the world - Asia, Europe, the Middle East - seems innocuous. But the name of a region is totemic- a mental map that guides the decisions of leaders and the story of international order, war and peace. In recent years, the label 'Indo-Pacific' has gained wide use, including among the leaders of the United States, India, Japan, Australia, Indonesia and France. But what does it really mean?

Written by a recognised expert and regional policy insider, Contest for the Indo-Pacific is the definitive guide to tensions in the region. It deftly weaves together history, geopolitics, cartography, military strategy, economics, games and propaganda to address a vital question- how can China's dominance be prevented without war?

About the Author

Rory Medcalf is one of Australia's most prominent strategic thinkers and the author of Contest for the Indo-Pacific. He has been a senior analyst in Australia's peak intelligence agency, a diplomat with experience in India, Japan and Bougainville, a journalist, a defence and arms control adviser to the Australian government, and an influential foreign policy expert at the Lowy Institute. Professor Medcalf has been Head of the National Security College at the Australian National University since 2015.