Preface ix
Preface to the First Edition xi
1 Computing Probabilities: Right Ways and Wrong Ways 1
The Probabilist 1
The Probabilist's Toys and Language 4
The Probabilist's Rule Book 10
Independence, Airplanes, and Russian Peasants 15
Conditional Probability, Swedish TV, and British Courts 20
Liar, Liar 25
Car Dealers and Color Blindness 29
Shuttlecocks and Spaghetti Westerns 34
Combinatorics, Pastrami, and Poetry 40
The Von Trapps and The Binomial Distribution 45
Final Word 51
2 Surprising Probabilities: When Intuition Struggles 53
Boys, Girls, Aces, and Colored Cards 53
Goats and Gloats 58
Happy Birthday 61
Typical Atypicalities 66
The British Snob and I 72
Strategery 75
Final Word 78
3 Tiny Probabilities: Why Are They So Hard to Escape? 79
Probable Improbabilities 79
Saddam and I 83
Taking Tiny Risks 89
A Million-to-One Shot, Doc, Million to One! 91
Monsieur Poisson and the Mysterious Number 37 93
Clumps in Space 98
Final Word 100
4 Backward Probabilities: The Reverend Bayes to Our Rescue 101
Driving Miss Daisy 101
Bayes, Balls, and Boys (and Girls) 104
Bayes and My Green Card 107
Objection Your Honor 112
Ornithology 122
Final Word 125
5 Beyond Probabilities: What to Expect 127
Great Expectations 127
The Price is Right (Maybe) 134
Blood, Sweat, and Theory 137
Good Things Come to Those Who Wait 140
Expect the Unexpected 145
Exponential Growth toward Extinction 149
Size Matters (and Length, and Age) 159
Mean, Median, Mode 165
Deviant Behavior 171
Final Word 176
6 Inevitable Probabilities: Two Fascinating Mathematical Results 177
Alea Iacta Est, Over and Over 177
Even-Steven? The Law Misunderstood 181
Coin Tosses and Freeway Congestion 188
Let's Get Serious 195
Bells and Bread 200
How a Toronto Quincunx Changed My Life 204
Final Word 206
7 Gambling Probabilities: Why Donald Trump Is Richer than You 209
French Letters 209
Roulette: A Classy Way to Waste Your Money 214
Craps: Not so Dicey after All 219
Blackjack: Money for Mnemonics 222
Math for Losers 227
Win Money and Lose Friends 234
Final Word 245
8 Guessing Probabilities: Enter the Statisticians 247
Lies, Damned Lies, and Beautiful Lies? 247
4 Out of 10 Like the President 19 Times Out of 20 251
Polls Gone Wild 257
The Silver Lining 262
The Lawsuit and the Lurker 265
Football Players and Geyser Eruptions 271
Snooping in the Abbot's Garden 278
Final Word 284
9 Faking Probabilities: Computer Simulation 285
Mahogany Dice and Modular Arithmetic 285
Random and Not-So-Random Digits 293
Number One is Number One 294
Is Random Really Random? 297
Final Word 302
Index 305
