Preface xiii
Julien BAROTH, Franck SCHOEFS and Denys BREYSSE
Introduction xvii
Julien BAROTH, Alaa CHATEAUNEUF and Franck SCHOEFS
PART 1. QUALITATIVE METHODS FOR EVALUATING THE RELIABILITY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING STRUCTURES 1
Introduction to Part 1 3
Chapter 1. Methods for System Analysis and Failure Analysis 5
Daniel BOISSIER, Laurent PEYRAS and Aur©lie TALON
1.1. Introduction 5
1.2. Structural analysis 7
1.3. Functional analysis 10
1.4. Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) 14
1.5. Bibliography 19
Chapter 2. Methods for Modeling Failure Scenarios 21
Daniel BOISSIER, Laurent PEYRAS and Aur©lie TALON
2.1. Introduction 21
2.2. Event tree method 22
2.3. Fault tree method 24
2.4. Bow-tie method 26
2.5. Criticality evaluation methods 29
2.6. Bibliography 34
Chapter 3. Application to a Hydraulic Civil Engineering Project 37
Daniel BOISSIER, Laurent PEYRAS and Aur©lie TALON
3.1. Context and approach for an operational reliability study 37
3.2. Functional analysis and failure mode analysis 39
3.3. Construction of failure scenarios 42
3.4. Scenario criticality analysis 44
3.5. Application summary 50
3.6. Bibliography 51
PART 2. HETEROGENEITY AND VARIABILITY OF MATERIALS: CONSEQUENCES FOR SAFETY AND RELIABILITY 53
Introduction to Part 2 55
Chapter 4. Uncertainties in Geotechnical Data 57
Denys BREYSSE, Julien BAROTH, Gilles CELEUX, Aur©lie TALON and Daniel BOISSIER
4.1. Various sources of uncertainty in geotechnical engineering 57
4.2. Erroneous, censored and sparse data 62
4.3. Statistical representation of data 64
4.4. Data modeling 66
4.5. Conclusion 74
4.6. Bibliography 74
Chapter 5. Some Estimates on the Variability of Material Properties 77
Denys BREYSSE and Antoine MARACHE
5.1. Introduction 77
5.2. Mean value estimation 77
5.3. Estimation of characteristic values 82
5.4. Principles of a geostatistical study 86
5.5. Bibliography 96
Chapter 6. Reliability of a Shallow Foundation Footing 97
Denys BREYSSE
6.1. Introduction 97
6.2. Bearing capacity models for strip foundations ¢" modeling errors 98
6.3. Effects of soil variability on variability in bearing capacity and safety of the foundation 101
6.4. Taking account of the structure of the spatial correlation and its influence on the safety of the foundation 109
6.5. Conclusions 115
6.6. Bibliography 117
PART 3. METAMODELS FOR STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY 119
Introduction to Part 3 121
Chapter 7. Physical and Polynomial Response Surfaces 123
Fr©d©ric DUPRAT, Franck SCHOEFS and Bruno SUDRET
7.1. Introduction 123
7.2. Background to the response surface method 124
7.3. Concept of a response surface 125
7.4. Usual reliability methods 131
7.5. Polynomial response surfaces 133
7.6. Conclusion 143
7.7. Bibliography 143
Chapter 8. Response Surfaces based on Polynomial Chaos Expansions 147
Bruno SUDRET, G©raud BLATMAN and Marc BERVEILLER
8.1. Introduction 147
8.2. Building of a polynomial chaos basis 149
8.3. Computation of the expansion coefficients 151
8.4. Applications in structural reliability 158
8.5. Conclusion 164
8.6. Bibliography 165
PART 4. METHODS FOR STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY OVER TIME 169
Introduction to Part 4 171
Chapter 9. Data Aggregation and Unification 173
Daniel BOISSIER and Aur©lie TALON
9.1. Introduction 173
9.2. Methods of data aggregation and unification 173
9.3. Evaluation of evacuation time for an apartment in case of fire 181
9.4. Conclusion 185
9.5. Bibliography 185
Chapter 10. Time-Variant Reliability Problems 187
Bruno SUDRET
10.1. Introduction 187
10.2. Random processes 188
10.3. Time-variant reliability problems 192
10.4. PHI2 method 197
10.5. Industrial application: truss structure under time-varying loads 202
10.6. Conclusion 204
10.7. Bibliography 205
Chapter 11. Bayesian Inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods 207
Gilles CELEUX
11.1. Introduction 207
11.2. Bayesian Inference 208
11.3. MCMC methods for weakly informative data 210
11.4. Estimating a competing risk model from censored and incomplete data 219
11.5. Conclusion 225
11.6. Bibliography 225
Chapter 12. Bayesian Updating Techniques in Structural Reliability 227
Bruno SUDRET
12.1. Introduction 227
12.2. Problem statement: link between measurements and model prediction 228
12.3. Computing and updating the failure probability 229
12.4. Updating a confidence interval on response quantities 233
12.5. Bayesian updating of the model basic variables 235
12.6. Updating the prediction of creep strains in containment vessels of nuclear power plants 238
12.7. Conclusion 245
12.8. Acknowledgments 246
12.9. Bibliography 246
PART 5. RELIABILITY-BASED MAINTENANCE OPTIMIZATION 249
Introduction to Part 5 251
Chapter 13. Maintenance Policies 253
Alaa CHATEAUNEUF, Franck SCHOEFS and Bruno CAPRA
13.1. Maintenance 253
13.2. Types of maintenance 257
13.3. Maintenance models 262
13.4. Conclusion 269
13.5. Bibliography 269
Chapter 14. Maintenance Cost Models 271
Alaa CHATEAUNEUF and Franck SCHOEFS
14.1. Preventive maintenance 271
14.2. Maintenance based on time 273
14.3. Maintenance based on age 275
14.4. Inspection models 276
14.5. Structures with large lifetimes 283
14.6. Criteria for choosing a maintenance policy 284
14.7. Example of a corroded steel pipeline 285
14.8. Conclusion 290
14.9. Bibliography 290
Chapter 15. Practical Aspects: Industrial Implementation and Limitations in a Multi-criteria Context 293
Franck SCHOEFS and Bruno CAPRA
15.1. Introduction 293
15.2. Motorway concession with high performance requirements 296
15.3. Ageing of civil engineering structures: using field data to update predictions 303
15.4. Conclusion 307
15.5. Bibliography 308
Conclusion 311
Julien BAROTH, Franck SCHOEFS and Denys BREYSSE
List of Symbols 315
List of Authors 323
Index 325
