+612 9045 4394
 
CHECKOUT
Verbal Decision Analysis for Unstructured Problems : THEORY AND DECISION LIBRARY SERIES C, GAME THEORY, MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING, AND OPERATIONS RESEARCH - Oleg I. Larichev

Verbal Decision Analysis for Unstructured Problems

THEORY AND DECISION LIBRARY SERIES C, GAME THEORY, MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING, AND OPERATIONS RESEARCH

Hardcover

Published: 30th June 1997
Ships: 7 to 10 business days
7 to 10 business days
RRP $498.99
$345.50
31%
OFF
or 4 easy payments of $86.38 with Learn more

Other Available Formats (Hide)

  • Paperback View Product Published: 7th December 2010
    $259.53

A central problem of prescriptive decision making is the mismatch between the elegant formal models of decision theory and the less elegant, informal thinking of decision makers, especially when dealing with ill-structured situations. This problem has been a central concern of the authors and their colleagues over the past two decades. They have wisely (to my mind) realized that any viable solution must be informed by a deep understanding of both the structural properties of alternative formalisms and the cognitive demands that they impose on decision makers. Considering the two in parallel reduces the risk of forcing decision makers to say things and endorse models that they do not really understand. It opens the door for creative solutions, incorporating insights from both decision theory and cognitive psychology. It is this opportunity that the authors have so ably exploited in this important book. Under the pressures of an interview situation, people will often answer a question that is put to them. Thus, they may be willing to provide a decision consultant with probability and utility assessments for all manner of things. However, if they do not fully understand the implications of what they are saying and the use to which it will be put, then they cannot maintain cognitive mastery of the decision models intended to represent their beliefs and interests.

Introductionp. 1
Individual Decision Making: Approaches and Methodsp. 9
Participant of the process of decision makingp. 12
Economico-mathematical approach to problems of choicep. 19
Mathematical modeling in problems of choicep. 29
System approach to problems of choicep. 35
Computer approach to the problems of choicep. 40
Psychological approach to the problems of choicep. 42
Mutual influencep. 49
A New Approach to Unstructured Problems of Decision Makingp. 51
Unstructured problems with qualitative variablesp. 51
Features of unstructured problemsp. 53
The role of decision making methodsp. 54
Requirements on the methods of decision makingp. 55
Measurementp. 56
Valid information elicitation for constructing a decision rulep. 68
Valid transformation of verbal informationp. 76
Closed proceduresp. 80
Learning proceduresp. 83
Explanationsp. 84
The new approach and construction of decision methodsp. 84
App. 1p. 85
App. 2p. 90
App. 3p. 94
The Method Zapros-LM for Partial Rank-Ordering of Multiattribute Alternativesp. 97
Main ideas of the method ZAPROS-LMp. 97
Problem formulationp. 105
An approach to the problem solutionp. 106
Elicitation of information on DM's preferencesp. 109
Elimination of intransitivity in DM's responsesp. 112
Implementation of information on the DM's preferencesp. 115
Implementation of obtained information for comparison of real alternativesp. 119
Task modification in case of criteria dependencyp. 125
Illustration of the method ZAPROS-LM using a simple examplep. 128
The evaluation of the procedure's complexity for the decision makerp. 131
The interactive system ZAPROSp. 133
Conclusionp. 143
An Application of the method ZAPROS for RandD evaluationp. 145
The Method Pacom for the Selection of the Best Alternativep. 153
Main ideas of the method PACOM (PAired COMpensation)p. 153
Task formulationp. 160
The general approach to the task solutionp. 161
Procedure for comparison of two alternativesp. 163
Aggregation of information about comparison of pairs of alternativesp. 173
The interactive system PACOMp. 174
Implementation of the method PACOM for the analysis of the gas pipeline route selection problemp. 181
Conclusionp. 187
The Method Orclass for Ordinal Classification of Multiattribute Alternativesp. 189
Main ideas of the method ORCLASS (ORdinal CLASSification)p. 189
The multicriteria classification problem in decision makingp. 196
The task formulationp. 197
An approach to the rational procedure for construction of the complete ordinal classificationp. 201
Detection and elimination of inconsistencies in the decision maker's responsesp. 207
Class boundaries and their implementationp. 212
Behavioral aspects of the ordinal classification taskp. 217
Interactive system ORCLASS and its implementationp. 223
Implementation of the system ORCLASS for evaluation of RandD projects in a medical research institutionp. 230
Conclusionp. 236
Conclusionp. 239
Referencesp. 247
Indexp. 257
Table of Contents provided by Blackwell. All Rights Reserved.

ISBN: 9780792345787
ISBN-10: 0792345789
Series: THEORY AND DECISION LIBRARY SERIES C, GAME THEORY, MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING, AND OPERATIONS RESEARCH
Audience: Professional
Format: Hardcover
Language: English
Number Of Pages: 260
Published: 30th June 1997
Publisher: Springer
Country of Publication: NL
Dimensions (cm): 25.4 x 17.15  x 1.91
Weight (kg): 0.57