Foreword iii
Preface ix
Acknowledgments xiv
Part 1 Building Your Knowledge from the Ground Up 1
Introduction: The Secret of the Gamboni 1
1 From Gambler to Market Master: The Making of a Professional Speculator 3
A Quest for Freedom 5
The Wisdom of the Tape 6
Horsetrading Options 8
A Taste of Independence 10
Discovering the Nature of Trends 12
Finding My Freedom 13
2 The Alligator Principle: Proof of the Need to Think in Essentials 15
Being Eaten Alive 15
Thinking in Essentials16
3 A Business Philosophy for Consistent Success 21
Preservation of Capital 21
Consistent Profitability 24
Pursuit of Superior Returns 26
Conclusion 27
4 Finding Order in Market Chaos: An Introduction to Dow Theory 29
Good Ideas Often Misunderstood 30
The “Hypotheses” of Dow Theory 32
The “Theorems” of Dow Theory 35
Conclusion 46
5 A True Understanding of Trends 49
Uptrend, Downtrend, Move All Around Trend 49
Let’s Reduce It to Basics 49
The Importance of Confirmation 52
The Four Phases of a Market 54
Important Volume Relationships 57
Conclusion 57
6 The Merits and Hazards of Technical Analysis 59
Tidewatchers 60
The Manipulators 63
The Purists 66
Summary 67
7 Where Fortunes Are Made: Identifying a Change of Trend 69
Determining the Trend—Drawing the Trendline 71
Identifying a Change of Trend: It's Easy as 1-2-3 74
2B, or Not 2B? That’s Worth Some Money! 78
The Cause of Tests and the 2B Pattern 81
The ABCs of Secondary Corrections 84
Summary 84
8 What the Analysts Don’t Know Can Kill You 87
How Important Can Anchovies Be? 87
Understanding Moving Averages8 8
A Different Perspective on Relative Strength 93
Momentum Indicators (Oscillators) 96
Making Specific Stock Selections 104
Conclusion 108
9 The Way the World Really Works: The Basics of Economics 109
The Jigsaw Puzzle 109
Economics According to Robinson Crusoe 112
The Role of Money 115
Economics and Human Nature 118
Production Before Affluence 121
Savings, Investment, Credit, and Wealth 124
Summary: The Closest Thing There Is to a Free Breakfast 130
10 Booms and Busts: Who Holds the Pump and Who Holds the Needle? 133
Booms and Busts: The Business Cycle 133
The Nature of the Business Cycle 134
The Structure and Role of the Federal Reserve System 144
How Money and Credit Availability Is Created and Controlled 146
Reserve Requirements, Fed Funds Rate, and the Discount Rate 151
How to Predict the Trend and Changes of Trend Based on Fed and Treasury Policy 160
Conclusion 162
11 Managing Money By Measuring Risk 163
The True Meaning of Risk 163
A Revolutionary Approach to Risk Assessment 166
Allocating Capital with Odds Management 170
12 There Must Be Fifty Ways to Lose Your Money 175
The $4017 Hairdryer 175
Trading Rules and the Reasons Behind Them 176
The Rules Defined 177
The 85% Rule 187
Conclusion to Part 1: Putting It All Together 189
Part II The Commitment to Make It Happen: Emotional Discipline 191
The Trader’s Dream: A Fable 191
13 The Spock Syndrome: Reason and Emotions at War197
Introduction 197
From Predator to Trader: The Evolution of Human Emotions 199
Emotions as Benefactor 202
Emotions as the Villain 204
The Source of Consistency: Emotional Discipline 206
Conclusion 208
14 Success is What You Make It 211
The Prerequisites of Success 211
The Meaning of Success 212
The Supercomputer of the Mind 214
Discovering and Using Motivation 216
Conclusion220
15 Changing So It Sticks 221
Using Your Body 222
Using Your Conscious Mind 225
Discovering Awareness 226
Finding Your Focus 228
The Power of Questions 231
The Importance of Evaluation 232
Values and Character 232
Beliefs and Personality 234
Harnessing the Power of the Subconscious 239
Anchoring 242
Conclusion 244
16 Conquering False Pride 245
The Most Important Reason People Fail in Trading 245
Your Evil Twin: The Idealized Self-Image 246
The Search for Glory 247
Compulsion and Imagination 250
When Wishes Become Claims 251
The Tyranny of the Shoulds 252
Real Pride/False Pride 256
17 Finding Your Freedom2 59
Notes 263
Glossary of Terms 271
Bibliography 281
Index 283
