Theories of Change in Reality

Foreword

Emily Gates and Kathy Chau Rohn

Part 1. Introduction

Andrew Koleros, Marie-Helene Adrien, and Tony Tyrrell

Part 2. Considerations in Using Theories of Change to Establish Causality

2. Theories of Change between Critical Thinking and Social Practices

Peter Dahler-Larsen

3. Setting the Stage for Contribution Claims

Thomas Delahais

4. Using Theories of Change to Assess Causality in a Policy Change Context

Carlisle Levine

5. How Deep is your Ontology? How a Little Ontological Thinking Can Strengthen How Evaluators Use Theories of Change

Tom Ling

6. My Perspective on Theories of Change

Markus Palenberg

Part 3. Using Theories of Change to Understand Wider Social Change Processes

7. Theory of Change for Sustainable Business

Jens Anderson

8. Upcycling TOC for Impact Investment and Early-Stage Ventures

Penny Hawkins and Zazie Tolmer

9. Strategy-level Theories of Change Require a Focus on Systems Change: An Actor-Based Approach can Help

Andrew Koleros

10. Evaluating the use of Artificial Intelligence and Big Data (ai/bd) in Policy Making: Unpacking Black-Boxes and Testing White-Boxes

Frans Leeuw

11. Developing, Representing and Using Theories of Change for Interventions in Complex Systems Patricia Rogers

Part 4. Adapting Theories of Change for Use in Broader Public Policy Contexts

12. Theories of Change in Evaluation of Local Government Reforms

Kurt Houlberg and Olaf Rieper

13. Theories-of-Change and the Evaluation of Sustainable Impact: Moving beyond Simplicity in Development Cooperation

Peter van der Knapp

14. Use of Theory of Change as a Management Tool for Government Multi-year Development Plans: The Case of Brazil's Federal PPA

Lycia Lima and Marina Lafer

15. Theories of Change in Complex Macro Public Sector Planning Settings in Africa: How Useful are They?

Candice Morkel

16. Simple Heuristics for Drafting Theories of Change: A Case of Behavioral Insights into Food Waste

Karol Olejniczak and Igor Lyubashenko

Part 5. Applying Theories of Change Approaches for Multiple Purposes

17. The Law of the Instrument: Would you Rather be a Theory or a Nail?

Gordon Freer

18. 3ie: A 'Balloon-Squeezing' Approach to the Theory of Change

Marie Gaarder

19. Integrating Theories of Change in Program Management and Delivery

Mark Oldenbeuving

20. Theories of Change: Who Needs Them? or: What Evaluators Can Learn from Opera

Burt Perrin

21. How to Ensure No-one Uses Your Theory of Change: Lessons from the Front Lines of ToC Facilitation and Possibilities for Renewal

Mary Tangelder

22. Why do we have ToCs of the Program Intervention but not of the Intervention that is the Evaluation?

Bob Williams

Part 6. Developing Theories of Change Reflective of Multiple Stakeholder Perspectives

23. Participatory Explorations of Alternative Futures: Using Narrative Theories of Change

Rick Davies, Lara Mani and Tom Hobson

24. Constructing a Living Theory of Change in Fragile Contexts: Grounded on Context, Problem and Evidence

Hur Hassnain

25. Flipping the Script on Program Theories: Advancing Towards Transformative Theories of Change

Sebastian Lemire

26. Theory Based Evaluation Approaches Can Enable Online Project Success

Steve Montague, Heloise Emdon and Eva Grabinski

27. Theory of Change as a Tool for Tracking Intensive Family Program Developments in Whitetown

Jane Mulcahey, Catherine Naughton and Sean Redmond

Conclusions

Andrew Koleros, Marie-Helene Adrien, and Tony Tyrrell