The Springer International Engineering and Computer Science

Assessment of Credibility

By: Franklin R. Nash

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Hardcover | 30 November 1992

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236 Pages

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23.5 x 16.51 x 1.91

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Estimating Device Reliability: Assessment of Credibility is concerned with the plausibility of reliability estimates obtained from statistical models. Statistical predictions are necessary because technology is always pushing into unexplored areas faster than devices can be made long-lived by design. Flawed reliability methodologies can produce disastrous results, an outstanding example of which is the catastrophic failure of the manned space shuttle CHALLENGER in January 1986. This issue is not whether, but which, statistical models should be used. The issue is not making reliability estimates, but is instead their credibility. The credibility questions explored in the context of practical applications include:

What does the confidence level associated with the use of statistical model mean?
Is the numerical result associated with a high confidence level beyond dispute?
When is it appropriate to use the exponential (constant hazard rate) model? Does this model always provide the most conservative reliability estimate?
Are the results of traditional `random' failure hazard rate calculations tenable? Are there persuasive alternatives?
What model should be used to describe the useful life of a device when wearout is absent?
When Weibull and lognormal failure plots containing a large number of failure times appear similar, how should the correct wearout model be selected?
Is it important to distinguish between a conservative upper bound on a probability of failure and a realistic estimate of the same probability?

Estimating Device Reliability: Assessment of Credibility is for those who are obliged to make reliability calculations with a paucity of somewhat corrupt data, by using inexact models, and by making physical assumptions which are impractical to verify. Illustrative examples deal with a variety of electronic devices, ICs and lasers.

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Preface
Introduction	p. 1
Probability	p. 9
One-Device Unit	p. 9
Two-Device Unit	p. 11
N-Device Unit	p. 20
Redundancy	p. 23
Sampling	p. 29
Binomial Formulae	p. 29
Poisson Formulae	p. 31
Confidence Levels	p. 33
Reliability Functions and the Bathtub Curve	p. 49
Human Mortality Data	p. 50
Survival and Failure Functions	p. 50
Probability Density Function	p. 54
Hazard Rate	p. 58
Component Bathtub Curve	p. 63
Exponential (Constant Hazard Rate) Model	p. 69
A Derivation of the Survival Function	p. 69
A Useful Approximate Form of the Hazard Rate	p. 73
Limitations on the Use of the Exponential Model	p. 74
Confidence Level	p. 78
Effective and Average Hazard Rates	p. 84
Models of Useful Life	p. 87
Traditional Approach	p. 87
Modified Traditional Approach	p. 89
Critique of Conservative Approaches	p. 91
Declining Hazard Rate Weibull Model versus the Exponential Model	p. 92
Wearout	p. 123
Commonly Employed Models	p. 125
Example: Electromigration Failures	p. 127
Example: Light Bulb Failures	p. 127
Example: Laser Failures	p. 144
Device Qualification	p. 163
Prequalification	p. 163
Qualification	p. 165
Index	p. 211
Table of Contents provided by Blackwell. All Rights Reserved.

The Springer International Engineering and Computer Science

Assessment of Credibility

At a Glance

Hardcover

Shipping

How to return your order

Defective items

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