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The End of World Population Growth in the 21st Century : New Challenges for Human Capital Formation and Sustainable Development - Warren C. Sanderson

The End of World Population Growth in the 21st Century

New Challenges for Human Capital Formation and Sustainable Development

Hardcover Published: 1st April 2004
ISBN: 9781844070893
Number Of Pages: 352

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The 20th century was the century of explosive population growth, resulting in unprecedented impacts; in contrast, the 21st century is likely to see the end of world population growth and become the century of population aging. We are currently at the crossroads of these demographic regimes. This book presents fresh evidence about our demographic future and provides a new framework for understanding the underlying unity in this diversity. It is an invaluable resource for those concerned with the implications of population change in the 21st century.

The End of World Population Growth in the 21st Century is the first volume in a new series on Population and Sustainable Development. The series provides fresh ways of thinking about population trends and impacts.

Industry Reviews

'This book makes several important contributions to rigorous thinking about population dynamics in the 21st century.' Jeffrey D Sachs, Director, Earth Institute, Columbia University and Special Advisor to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan

'A valuable synthesis of the methodological innovations applied with remarkable creativity to real and important problems.' Joel E. Cohen, Head, Laboratory of Populations, Rockefeller University and Columbia University

'It makes for a highly stimulating and challenging read.' Journal of Peace Research

'Provide(s) a new framework for understanding the underlying unity between mortality and fertility rates.' The Futurist

'Technical studies claiming methodological advances' FUTURE SURVEY, May 2004

List of Acronymsp. ix
Introductionp. 1
Contrasting Perceptions of the Demographic Future: From "Population Explosion" to "Gray Dawn"p. 3
The Continuing Demographic Transitionp. 6
Antecedentsp. 9
Structure of the Volumep. 12
The End of World Population Growthp. 17
Why Do We Need New Forecasts?p. 18
Our Approach to Population Forecastingp. 20
Summary of Arguments and Specific Assumptionsp. 24
The Future Population of the World and Its Uncertaintyp. 38
The Population of World Regions and Their Uncertaintiesp. 41
Regional Population Sharesp. 49
Comparison with Other World Population Forecastsp. 52
Postscript: The Latest UN Long-Range Projectionsp. 58
Conclusionsp. 60
Definition of World Regionsp. 63
Assumed Matrix of Inter-regional Migration Flowsp. 67
Methodsp. 68
Applications of Probabilistic Population Forecastingp. 85
Massive Population Agingp. 86
Conditional Probabilistic Forecastingp. 105
Conditional Probabilistic Forecasts with Future Jump-Off Datesp. 109
Conclusionsp. 119
Future Human Capital: Population Projections by Level of Educationp. 121
The Multistate Approachp. 122
Data on Educationp. 126
Regional Education Levels in 2000p. 126
Scenariosp. 130
Sources of Data and Methods of Estimationp. 142
Results of the Projectionsp. 145
Literate Life Expectancy: Charting the Progress in Human Developmentp. 159
A Clear and Meaningful Indicator of Social Developmentp. 160
What Does Literate Life Expectancy Represent?p. 162
Calculations with Empirical Datap. 164
Trends in Literate Life Expectancy since 1970p. 165
Projections of Literate Life Expectancy to 2030p. 175
Conclusionsp. 179
Data Sources, Differences in Country Rankings, and Comparison of "No Education" and "Illiterate" Categoriesp. 181
Population-Environment-Development-Agriculture Interactions in Africa: A Case Study on Ethiopiap. 187
Backgroundp. 187
The Structure of the PEDA Modelp. 191
PEDA Projections for Ethiopiap. 200
Conclusionsp. 213
Model and Parameter Specificationsp. 214
Interactions between Education and HIV: Demographic Examples from Botswanap. 227
Introductionp. 227
Some Tidbits of Evidencep. 231
Overview of the Methodologyp. 234
Examples from Botswanap. 238
Previous Findingsp. 247
Conclusionsp. 252
Transition Rates between Statesp. 254
The Prevalence Rate Data and Their Correctionp. 260
China's Future Urban and Rural Population by Level of Educationp. 265
Introductionp. 265
Salient Demographic Features in Contemporary Chinap. 266
Alternative Scenarios for China's Futurep. 275
Conclusionsp. 280
Population, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Climate Changep. 283
Introductionp. 283
Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissionsp. 284
Population and Greenhouse Gas Emissionsp. 290
Conclusions and Policy Implicationsp. 309
Conceptualizing Population in Sustainable Development: From "Population Stabilization" to "Population Balance"p. 315
Changing Population Policy Rationalesp. 316
Population Balancep. 323
A Highly Simplified, Quantitative Population Balance Modelp. 325
Conclusionsp. 331
Indexp. 335
Table of Contents provided by Rittenhouse. All Rights Reserved.

ISBN: 9781844070893
ISBN-10: 1844070891
Series: Population and Sustainable Development
Audience: Tertiary; University or College
Format: Hardcover
Language: English
Number Of Pages: 352
Published: 1st April 2004
Publisher: Taylor & Francis Ltd
Country of Publication: GB
Dimensions (cm): 24.77 x 16.51  x 3.18
Weight (kg): 0.66
Edition Number: 1

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