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Risk, Uncertainty and Decision-Making in Property - P. Byrne

Risk, Uncertainty and Decision-Making in Property

By: P. Byrne

Paperback Published: 1st January 1995
ISBN: 9780419200307
Number Of Pages: 176

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Provides undergraduates in surveying and property professionals with a clear practical explanation of the various management techniques to improve their property development decisions.

Uncertainty, risk and the process of property development
Intrduction
The process of property development: Acquisition, production and disposal
Time
Attitudes to risk
Information
Uncertainty and risk
Development appraisal: The variables
Sources of data
Sensitivity and uncertainty
References
Decisions and decision-making
Introduction: The formal approach
Complexity
Kinds of decision
Models
Decision criteria: The pay-off table
The maximin approach
The maximax approach
The Hurwicz approach
Savage's regret table
Decision Trees
Summary
Assessing risk and uncertainty
Introduction
Probability: The language of probability
Measuring probability
How probabilities can be assessed
The concept of expectation
Utility: The concept of utility
Describing utility
Types and characteristics of utility functions
Sensitivity and simulation: Simulation, models and sensitivity analysis
Models and sensitivity analysis
The Monte Carlo method
Conclusion
References
Decision methods in development appraisal
Introduction
Analysis using probability distributions: The use of subjective probabilities
Probability distributions and time: Evaluating uncertain cash flows over time
Advances approached to development appraisal
Conclusion
References
Computerized development appraisal
Case study: Monte Carlo simulation in development appraisal
Introduction
Case study: general discussion: Variability in the model
Sensitivity analysis
Identification of probabilistic variables
Two case studies: Case 1: distributions
Some general comments
Case 1: initial analysis
Repetition, stability and variability: testing the model
Interpretations: Case 1: Model's performance
Measures of central tendency: the average performance of the model
Sensitivity analysis in simulation
Case 2: changing the shape of the probability distributions
Case study conclusions
Conclusion: simulation in development process
References
Appendix 1 The characteristics of the normal distribution
Bibliography
Index
Table of Contents provided by Publisher. All Rights Reserved.

ISBN: 9780419200307
ISBN-10: 0419200304
Audience: Professional
Format: Paperback
Language: English
Number Of Pages: 176
Published: 1st January 1995
Publisher: TAYLOR & FRANCIS
Country of Publication: GB
Dimensions (cm): 23.39 x 15.6  x 0.97
Weight (kg): 0.25
Edition Number: 2
Edition Type: New edition