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RAND Studies in Policy Analysis : Assumption-Based Planning: A Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises - James A. Dewar

RAND Studies in Policy Analysis

Assumption-Based Planning: A Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises

Hardcover Published: 21st July 2014
ISBN: 9780521806534
Number Of Pages: 268

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  • Paperback View Product Published: 19th December 2002

Unwelcome surprises in the life of any organization can often be traced to the failure of an assumption that the organization's leadership didn't anticipate or had 'forgotten' it was making. Assumption-based planning (ABP) is a tool for identifying as many as possible of the assumptions underlying the plans of an organization and bringing those assumptions explicitly into the planning process. This book presents a variety of techniques for rooting out those vulnerable, crucial assumptions. The book also presents steps for monitoring all the vulnerable assumptions of a plan, for taking actions to control those vulnerable assumptions where possible, and for preparing the organization for the potential failure of those assumptions where control is not possible. The book provides a variety of examples and practical advice for those interested in carrying out an application of ABP in the fields of business, management, strategic planning, engineering, and in military applications.

'... an impressively flexible and pragmatic approach makes extensive use of scenarios. In my view this is one of the most useful methods for stress-testing a plan ... the process spelt out in the book can be applied to all fields of planning and Dewar utilises his real world experience to suggest different methods for implementing the five steps of ABP. This pragmatic approach makes the book very useful for practitioners ...'. The Business Economist
"...a careful but engaging explanation of how this type of planning works...Planners who use ABP can take comfort in its realism. The author and his associates have battle tested it in real-life planning for the U.S. Army and private clients over many years...The detailed knowledge gained in ABP should permit the development of ever more relevant scenarios for scenario planning and thus more robust plans." Futurist
"Essential for business managers and strategic planners interested in improving existing operation plans." The Futurist

The essence of assumption-based planning
A taxonomy of assumptions
Step 1: identifying assumptions
Step 2: identifying load-bearing, vulnerable assumptions
Step 3: identifying signposts
Step 4: developing shaping actions
Step 5: developing hedging actions
The art of conducting ABP
Beyond ABP as a post-planning tool
Table of Contents provided by Publisher. All Rights Reserved.

ISBN: 9780521806534
ISBN-10: 0521806534
Series: RAND Studies in Policy Analysis
Audience: Professional
Format: Hardcover
Language: English
Number Of Pages: 268
Published: 21st July 2014
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Country of Publication: GB
Dimensions (cm): 22.9 x 15.2  x 1.6
Weight (kg): 0.53