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Project Selection Under Uncertainty : Dynamically Allocating Resources to Maximize Value - Stylianos Kavadias

Project Selection Under Uncertainty

Dynamically Allocating Resources to Maximize Value

Hardcover

Published: 31st January 2004
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Project Selection Under Uncertainty is the result of a five-year research program on the selection of projects in New Product Development (NPD). Choosing the New Product Development portfolio is of critical importance in today's business environment. The NPD portfolio has considerable strategic effect on the "middle term" success of a business.
This book takes a step in developing a theory that addresses the need for quantitative prioritization criteria within the broader strategic context of the R&D portfolios. Its foundation lies in mathematical theory of resource-constrained optimization with the goal to maximize quantitative returns. The book seeks to broaden the portfolio discussion in two ways. First, simplified models - appropriate for the data-poor NPD context - are developed, which attempt to illuminate the structure of the choice problem and robust qualitative rules of thumb, rather than detailed algorithmic decision support. Such robust rules can be applied in the R&D environment of poor data availability. Second, the annual portfolio review is not the only important choice in resource allocation. In addition, the book discusses how ideas might be pre-screened as they emerge, and how projects should be prioritized once they are funded and ongoing.

From the reviews: "This book is rooted in the mathematical theory of resource constrained optimization with the goal of maximization quantitative turns ! . It attempts to broaden the portfolio discussion in two ways. First, simplified models appropriate for a new product development context are described where the lack of precise data is typical. Second, not only the annual portfolio review is discussed, but also what should be done with ideas as they emerge, and how projects should be prioritized once they are funded and ongoing." (Klaus Ehemann, Zentralblatt MATH, Vol. 1056 (7), 2005)

List of Figures
Preface
Acknowledgements
Introduction to the portfolio selection problem
Introduction
Portfolio selection: a complex task
Research questions and overview of this book
What has been done so far?
Introduction
Operational decisions
Strategic decisions
Strategic alignment of R&D: an example
Implications for this book
Dynamic selection of NPD programs
Introduction
Model setup
Increasing returns
Decreasing returns
Decreasing returns and market interactions
Decreasing returns and risk aversion
Numerical example
n Product lines and T Periods
Discussion and conclusion
Applying project selection at GemStone
Introduction
The diamond producer GemStone Inc
Selecting the portfolio at GemStone
Discussion and conclusion
Admitting projects one-by-one
Introduction
Model setup
Optimal policy
Discussion and conclusion
Prioritizing ongoing projects
Introduction
Model and optimal sequencing policy
Discussion and examples
Conclusion.7: What have we learned?
References
About the Authors
Index
Table of Contents provided by Publisher. All Rights Reserved.

ISBN: 9781402077036
ISBN-10: 1402077033
Series: International Series in Operations Research & Management Science
Audience: Professional
Format: Hardcover
Language: English
Number Of Pages: 145
Published: 31st January 2004
Publisher: Springer-Verlag New York Inc.
Country of Publication: US
Dimensions (cm): 23.5 x 15.5  x 2.54
Weight (kg): 0.43