This book contains both a theoretical analysis of (supply)price stabilization on world agricultural markets and aneconometric investigationof recent sugar market policies. The theoretical part explicitly considers the effects ofprotected domestic markets: It shows price stabilization tobe generally desirable and provides a proof for thenon-existence of rational expectations equilibria on theworld market in a model with inelastic excess supply. Theempirical analysis assesses the effects of the InternationalSugar Agreements of 1968 and 1977. Quota-mechanisms intendedto limit sugar exports are found to have raised the averageworld market price. A reduction in the price's variance, however, is not conceivable. In general, quota agreementsseemto be an inapppropriate instrument of pricestabilization, as they lack a stable equilibriuminterpretation. The method of analysis is time serieseconometrics with particular attention on unit root andcointegration issues. Tests for structural change emplopyedin orderto single out possible effects of the InternationalSugar Agreements.
I: Price Stabilization on World Markets for Agricultural Products.- 1: On the Desirability of Price Stabilization.- 1.1 The Domestic Market.- 1.2 The Model.- 1.3 Welfare Effects of Price Stabilization.- 1.4 Discussion.- 2: Non-Existence of Rational Expectations Equilibria.- 2.1 The World Market.- 2.2 Market Equilibrium.- 2.3 The Role of Price Stabilization.- 3: Price Dynamics in a Linear World.- 3.1 A Refined Version of the Model.- 3.2 Cyclical Behavior.- 3.3 Price Cycles and Stabilization.- II: Price Formation on the World Sugar Market.- 4: Characteristics of the Market.- 4.1 The Product.- 4.2 Substitutes.- 4.3 The Market Structure.- 4.4 Prices.- 4.5 The Data.- 5: Quantitative Analysis of the World Sugar Market.- 5.1 Testing for Unit Roots.- 5.2 Testing for Cointegration.- 5.3 Estimation of Production Functions.- 5.4 Protected Domestic Markets and the Inelasticity of World Systematic Excess Production.- 5.5 Prices ...- 5.6 ... and Price Expectations.- 5.7 World Systematic Excess Production.- 5.8 Stock Demand by Countries.- III: Price Stabilization on the World Sugar Market.- 6: The International Sugar Agreements.- 6.1 Design of the International Sugar Agreements of 1968 and 1977.- 6.2 The Agreements in Practice.- 7: Structural Change on the World Sugar Market.- 7.1 Tests and Monte Carlo Results.- 7.2 Formulating Alternatives.- 7.3 Testing in Practice: Stock Demand Equations.- 7.4 Testing in Practice: Systematic Excess Production and Price Equations.- 8: Quantifying the Effects of the International Sugar Agreements.- 8.1 The Basic Idea: Using Simulations.- 8.2 Effects of the ISAs on Stock Levels: A Conservative Approach.- 8.3 Effects of the ISAs on Stock Levels: A Liberal Approach.- 8.4 Effects of the ISAs on World Systematic Excess Production.- 8.5 Effects of the ISAs on the World Market Price for Sugar.- Conclusions.- Appendix: Regression Diagnostics.- Al: Testing Procedures.- A1.1 Testing for Normality.- A1.2 Testing for Serial Independence.- A1.3 Testing for Heteroskedasticity.- A1.4 Testing for Non-Linearities.- A1.5 Testing for Structural Change.- A2: Regression Statistics and P-Values.- List of Abbreviations.- References.
Series: Springer Series in Solid-State Sciences
Number Of Pages: 274
Publisher: Springer-Verlag Berlin and Heidelberg Gmbh & Co. Kg
Country of Publication: DE
Dimensions (cm): 24.41 x 16.99
Weight (kg): 0.47