This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (with a total of 167 independent subjects) on forecasting behavior. In all experiments, the time series to be forecasted was generated by an abstract econometric model involving two or three artificial exogenous variables. This design provides an optimal background for rational expectations and least-squares learning. As expected, these hypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behavior satisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack of rationality are studied: Concentration on changes rather than levels, underestimation of changes and overvaluation of volatile exogenous variables. Some learning behavior is observed. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts such as prominence of "round" number, dispersion, etc. , are studied.
0. Literature Review.- 0.1 Empirical Studies and Experimental Studies.- 0.2 Hypotheses to Be Tested.- 0.3 Description of Selected Empirical Studies.- 0.4 Description of Selected Experimental Studies.- 0. 5 Concluding Comments on the Literature.- 1. Rationality in Presence of Exogenous Variables.- 1.1 Fully Rational and Least-Squares-Learning Predictions.- 1.2 Predictions Based on Misspecified Models.- 2. Experimental Design and Notation.- 2.1 Experimental Design.- 2.2 Notation.- 3. Aggregate Forecasts.- 3.1 Forecast Error and Deviations from Rational Predictions.- 3.2 Least-Squares Learning.- 3.3 Some Non-Rational Features of Forecasts.- 3.4 "Trend-Underestimating Predictions".- 3.5 Learning Behavior?.- 3.6 The Influence of Single Variables.- 3.7 Psychological Factors.- 3.8 Concluding Remarks on Average Forecasts.- 4. Sum Results on Individual Forecasts.- 4.1 Comparison to Various Prediction Concepts.- 4.2 Non-Rational Features of Forecasts.- 4.3 Learning Behavior.- 4.4 Regression on Single Exogenous Variables.- 4.5 Psychological Factors.- 5. Features of Individual Forecasts.- 5.1 The Questionnaires.- 5.2 Categories of Individual Forecasts.- 5.3 Preference for "Round" Numbers.- 5.4 The Time Spent for Forecasting.- 5.5 The Dispersion of Forecasts.- 6. Conclusion.- 7. Appendix.- 7.1 Mean Absolute Deviations from Various Prediction Concepts.- 7.2 Regression on Single Exogenous Variables.- 8. References.
Series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science
Number Of Pages: 227
Publisher: SPRINGER VERLAG GMBH
Country of Publication: DE
Dimensions (cm): 23.39 x 15.6
Weight (kg): 0.35