Outlook for Japanese and German Future Technology : Comparing Technology Forecast Survey

Comparing Technology Forecast Survey

By: Kerstin Cuhls, Terutaka Kuwahara

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Paperback | 1 December 1993

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256 Pages

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This volume is part of a series which makes a contribution to research on innovation, and to the discussion of its political consequences. Adopting a practice-oriented, interdisciplinary approach, the "Technology, Innovation and Policy" series is concerned to examine the complex requirements of research and innovation, to describe their economic and societal impacts and to facilitate the responsible handling of new technologies. In Japan, the Delphi method is applied since 1971 to foresee possible technological developments. The same approach was used in Germany in 1992 for the first time. The German expert survey about the development of future technology was based on the Japanese survey conducted in 1991 and discussed the same topics. The results of both studies are compared and analyzed. From the comparison, conclusions can be drawn on the relevance of certain technology fields or disciplines not only for public technology policy, but also for companies. Possible times of realization, constraints on the realization, the current research and development (R&D) level of nations or the necessity of international co-operation give hints about tomorrow's technology and its economic and societal impacts.

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Foreword
Foreword
Preface
Preface
General Method	p. 1
Review of Western Literature on the Delphi Approach	p. 1
Overview of the Previous Delphi Experience in Japan	p. 11
Basic Statistics	p. 15
Special Aspects of Transposing the Japanese Delphi Approach to Another Country	p. 20
Outline of Survey Parameters and Data Processing for the Comparison	p. 31
Basic Macro Comparison	p. 41
Expert Knowledge	p. 42
Importance	p. 46
Time of Realization	p. 52
Foresight Precision	p. 58
International Co-operation	p. 62
RandD Level	p. 66
Constraints	p. 73
Conclusions on the Macro Level	p. 93
Cross Comparisons on the Macro Level	p. 98
Comparing Expert Knowledge with Importance	p. 98
Comparing Expert Knowledge with Forecasted Time of Realization	p. 100
Comparing Expert Knowledge with Constraints on Realization	p. 101
Comparison of the Importance and the Time of Realization	p. 103
Comparison of the Time of Realization and the Time Variance	p. 104
Comparing Certainty with Time of Realization Variance	p. 107
Comparison of the Necessity for International Co-operation with the Importance	p. 111
Comparison of the Necessity for International Co-operation and the Estimated Time of Realization	p. 112
Comparison of the Necessity for International Co-operation and the Present RandD Level	p. 113
Correlation between Constraints and the Necessity of International Co-operation	p. 116
Correlation of the RandD Level and the Importance of the Topics	p. 117
Time of Realization and RandD Level	p. 122
Correlation between the RandD Level and the Various Constraints on the Realization	p. 123
Comparison of the Importance and the Various Constraints on the Realization	p. 126
Time of Realization in Comparison with the Constraints on Realization	p. 135
Comparative Conclusions for the Countries	p. 140
Cross Comparisons of Technological Topics on the Micro Level	p. 144
Comparing some Important Innovation Scenarios	p. 144
Estimation of the Importance on the Micro Level	p. 154
Forecast of the Realization Times on the Micro Level	p. 163
International Co-operation	p. 183
Time Variance of the Forecast Compared with Certainty	p. 193
Most Efficient Innovation Projects	p. 200
Conclusions	p. 227
Literature	p. 236
Appendix	p. 238
Table of Contents provided by Blackwell. All Rights Reserved.

Outlook for Japanese and German Future Technology : Comparing Technology Forecast Survey

Comparing Technology Forecast Survey

At a Glance

Paperback

Shipping

How to return your order

Defective items

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