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Optimum Inductive Methods : A Study in Inductive Probability, Bayesian Statistics, and Verisimilitude - Roberto Festa

Optimum Inductive Methods

A Study in Inductive Probability, Bayesian Statistics, and Verisimilitude

Hardcover

Published: 30th September 1993
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This book deals with a basic problem arising within the Bayesian approach 1 to scientific methodology, namely the choice of prior probabilities. The problem will be considered with special reference to some inference methods used within Bayesian statistics (BS) and the so-called theory of inductive 2 probabilities (T/P). In this study an important role will be played by the assumption - defended by Sir Karl Popper and the supporters of the current verisimilitude theory (VT) - that the cognitive goal of science is the achievement of a high degree of truthlikeness or verisimilitude. A more detailed outline of the issues and objectives of the book is given in Section 1. In Section 2 the historical background of the Bayesian approach and the verisimilitude theory is briefly illustrated. In Section 3, the methods used in TIP and BS for making multinomial inference~ are considered and some conceptual relationships between TIP and BS are pointed out. In Section 4 the main lines of a new approach to the problem of the choice of prior probabilities are illustrated. Lastly, in Section 5 >the structure of the book is described and a first explanation of some technical terms is provided.

Acknowledgments
Introductionp. 1
Inductive Probabilities, Bayesian Statistics, and Verisimilitude
The Theory of Inductive Probabilities: Basic Features and Applicationsp. 13
Bayesian Statistics and Multinomial Inferences: Basic Featuresp. 20
Bayesian Point Estimation, Verisimilitude, and Immodestyp. 38
De Finetti's Theorem, GC-Systems, and Dirichlet Distributions
Exchangeable Inductive Methods, Bayesian Statistics, and Convergence Towards the Truthp. 51
GC-Systems and Dirichlet Distributionsp. 57
Verisimilitude, Disorder, and Optimum Prior Probabilities
The Choice of Prior Probabilities: The Subjective, Aprioristic, and Contextual Approachesp. 75
The Epistemic Problem of Optimality (EPO): A Contextual Approachp. 103
The Contextual Approach to EPO: Comparisons with Other Viewsp. 123
Disordered Universes: Diversity Measures in Statistics and the Empirical Sciencesp. 139
Concluding Remarksp. 150
Notesp. 154
Referencesp. 177
Index of Namesp. 185
Index of Subjectsp. 188
Table of Contents provided by Blackwell. All Rights Reserved.

ISBN: 9780792324607
ISBN-10: 0792324609
Series: Synthese Library
Audience: Professional
Format: Hardcover
Language: English
Number Of Pages: 194
Published: 30th September 1993
Publisher: Springer
Country of Publication: NL
Dimensions (cm): 23.5 x 15.5  x 1.91
Weight (kg): 1.05