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Leading Economic Indicators : New Approaches and Forecasting Records - Kajal Lahiri

Leading Economic Indicators

New Approaches and Forecasting Records

By: Kajal Lahiri (Editor), Geoffrey H. Moore (Editor)

Paperback

Published: 5th April 1993
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Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalize existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.

"The different chapters of this book provide a cross section of recent researches and developments in the field of business cycles and forecasting. The book is likely to be of interest for forecasters in government and business as well as for researchers in economics, business management, econometrics and statistics." R.K. Mathur, Journal of Educational Planning and Administration "...an excellent review of the current state of research into leading indicators. While the evidence presented concerns the US economy (with the exception of a couple of papers on Australia), the message that surveys and patterns in data can help in forecasting, has a much wider application and needs to be taken seriously by economic modellers." Kenneth Holden, International Journal of Forecasting

Preface
Editors' introduction
New Concepts and Methods
Toward a theory of leading indicators
A time-series framework for the study of leading indicators
A probability model of the coincident economic indicators
An international application of Neftci's probability approach for signalling growth recessions and recoveries using turning point indicators
On predicting the stage of the business cycle
Bayesian methods for forecasting turning points in economic time series: sensitivity of forecasts to asymmetry of loss structures
New developments in leading economic indicators
Forecasting Records and Methods of Evaluation
Forecasting cyclical turning points: the record in the past three recessions
Turning point predictions, errors, and forecasting procedures
Forecasting peaks and troughs in the business cycle: on the choice and use of appropriate leading indicator series
Using a consensus of leading economic indicators to find right ball park for real GNP forecasts
Some Australian experience with leading economic indicators
Turning point prediction with the composite leading index: an exante analysis
Forecasting recessions under the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings law
Leading indicators of inflation
New Economic Indicators
Commodity prices as a leading indicator of inflation
A leading indicator of inflation based on interest rates
Using composite leading indicators of consumption to forecast sales and to signal turning points in stock market
Economic indicators for Australia's service sector
Purchasing management survey data: their value as leading indicator
An agenda for inventories input to leading composite index
Index
Table of Contents provided by Publisher. All Rights Reserved.

ISBN: 9780521438582
ISBN-10: 0521438586
Series: New Approaches and Forecasting Records
Audience: Professional
Format: Paperback
Language: English
Number Of Pages: 484
Published: 5th April 1993
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Country of Publication: GB
Dimensions (cm): 22.8 x 15.2  x 2.7
Weight (kg): 0.71