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Judgment and Decision Making : An Interdisciplinary Reader - Terry Connolly

Judgment and Decision Making

An Interdisciplinary Reader

By: Terry Connolly (Editor), Hal R. Arkes (Editor), Kenneth R. Hammond (Editor)

Paperback Published: 22nd May 2000
ISBN: 9780521626026
Number Of Pages: 808

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Researchers in a growing number of fields - public policy, law, business, medicine, psychology, engineering, and others - are working to understand and improve human judgment and decision making. This book, which presupposes no formal training, brings together a selection of key articles in the area, with careful organization, introduction and commentaries. Issues involving medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, labor negotiations, risk, public policy, business strategy, eyewitnesses, jury decisions issues, and more are treated in this largely expanded volume, indicating the variety of problems - and scope in judgment and decision making. This is a revision of Arkes and Hammond's 1986 collection of papers on judgment and decision making. Updated and extended, the focus of this volume is interdisciplinary and applied. The papers selected are scientific in nature, but chosen specifically to appeal to the scholar, student and layperson alike.

Industry Reviews

"The three papers in this section are excellent...In this highly readable paper, Dawes draws on examples from a number of disparate fields to discuss the well known, though surprising, finding that simple weighted means of predictor variables produce more accurate forecasts than experts who are basing their judgment on the same variables." Internationsl Journal of Forcasting

Series preface
Editors' preface to the second edition
Introduction and Overview
Multiattribute evaluation
Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases
Coherence and correspondence theories in judgment and decision making
Enhancing diagnostic decisions
Applications in Public Policy
Illusions and mirages in public policy
The psychology of sunk cost
Value-focused thinking about strategic decisions at BC Hydro
Making better use of scientific knowledge: separating truth from justice
Applications in Economics
Choices, values and frames
Who uses the cost-benefit rules of choice? Implications for the normative status of microeconomic theory
Does studying economics inhibit cooperation?
Legal Applications
Leading questions and the eyewitness report
Explanation-based decision making
Decision theory, reasonable doubt and the utility of erroneous acquittals
Medical Applications
Capturing policy in hearing-aid decisions by audiologists
Physicians' use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting
On the elicitation of preferences for alternative therapies
Enhanced interpretation of diagnostic images
Reducing the influence of irrelevant information on experienced decision makers
Expert judgment: some necessary conditions and an example
The expert witness in psychology and psychiatry
Forecasting and Prediction
What forecast (seems to) mean
Proper and improper linear models
Seven components of judgmental forecasting skill: implications for research and the improvement of forecasts
Bargaining and negotiation
The judgment policies of negotiators and the structure of negotiation problems
The effect of agents and mediators on negotiation outcomes
Risk within reason
Risk perception and communication
Perceived risk, trust and democracy
Research Methods
Value elicitation: is there anything in there?
The overconfidence phenomenon as a consequence of informal experimenter-guided selection of almanac items
The a priori case against graphology: methodological and conceptual issues
Critiques and New Directions I
The two camps on rationality Helmut Jungermann
On cognitive illusions and their implications
Reasoning the fast and frugal way: models of bounded rationality
Judgment and decision making in social context: discourse processes and rational inference
Critiques and New Directions II
Why we still use our heads instead of formulas: toward an integrative approach
Nonconsequentialist decisions
Algebra and process in the modeling of risky choice
The theory of image theory: an examination of the central conceptual structure
Author index
Subject index
Table of Contents provided by Publisher. All Rights Reserved.

ISBN: 9780521626026
ISBN-10: 0521626021
Series: Cambridge Series on Judgement and Decision Making
Audience: Professional
Format: Paperback
Language: English
Number Of Pages: 808
Published: 22nd May 2000
Country of Publication: GB
Dimensions (cm): 22.84 x 15.6  x 3.84
Weight (kg): 1.04
Edition Number: 2
Edition Type: Revised

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