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Introduction to Risk Analysis : A Systematic Approach to Science-Based Decision Making - Daniel M. Byrd

Introduction to Risk Analysis

A Systematic Approach to Science-Based Decision Making

Hardcover

Published: 1st January 2000
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Written for safety and loss-control, environmental, and quality managers, this is the first comprehensive, integrated guide to developing a complete environmental risk analysis for regulated substances and processes. Unlike other books, Introduction to Risk Analysis looks at risk from a regulatory perspective, allowing both professionals in regulatory agencies concerned with risk_including OSHA, EPA, USDA, DOT, FDA, and state environmental agencies_and professionals in any agency-regulated industry to understand and implement the methods required for proper risk assessment. The authors examine risk and the structure of analysis. Emphasizing the predictive nature of risk, they discuss the quantitative nature of risk and explore quantitative-analysis topics, including data graphing, logarithmic thinking, risk estimating, and curve fitting. Chapters include discussions on functions, models, and uncertainties; the regulatory process; risk assessment; exposure; dosimetry; epidemiology; toxicology; risk characterization; comparative risk assessment; ecological risk assessment; risk management; and risk communication. Six in-depth case studies, an annotated bibliography, and more than 50 figures are also included.

List of Figures and Tablesp. xvii
Prefacep. xxiii
About the Authorsp. xxv
Risk Analysisp. 1
Probability of Future Lossp. 1
Risk Definedp. 1
Predictive Nature of Riskp. 2
Universality of Riskp. 3
Structure of Risk Analysisp. 4
Risk Assessmentp. 4
Risk Managementp. 5
Risk Communicationp. 6
Risk Policyp. 7
Risk Characteristicsp. 8
Precision and Accuracyp. 8
Safe vs. Risk Freep. 9
Risk Perceptionp. 9
Risk Exposurep. 10
Communication Problemsp. 12
Unitsp. 12
Life Tablesp. 15
Cohort Life Tablep. 16
Current Life Tablep. 17
Life Expectancyp. 18
Uncertaintyp. 19
Probability Axiomsp. 19
Contrasting Views of Uncertainty as Probabilityp. 22
Validationp. 23
Gold Standardsp. 24
Reproducibilityp. 24
The Meaning of Uncertaintyp. 26
Uncertainty vs. Variabilityp. 27
Consequences of Uncertaintyp. 29
Modelsp. 29
Uses of Mathematical Modelsp. 31
Simulation Modelsp. 31
Model Validityp. 32
Regulations and Regulatory Modelsp. 33
Politics of Regulationp. 33
Responding to Technological Changep. 34
Process of Risk Analysisp. 35
The Rest of the Bookp. 36
Referencesp. 38
Functions, Models, and Uncertaintiesp. 41
Qualitative Approaches to Riskp. 41
Quantitative Approaches to Riskp. 44
Graphs and Mathematical Modelsp. 50
Growth Rate, Doubling Time, and Logarithmsp. 58
Statistics about Pedestriansp. 60
Probability Distributionsp. 66
Tolerance-Distribution Modelsp. 74
Mechanistic Modelsp. 83
Uncertaintyp. 87
Subjective Judgmentp. 87
Linguistic Imprecisionp. 88
Statistical Variationp. 88
Samplingp. 89
Inherent Randomnessp. 90
Model Uncertaintyp. 90
Causalityp. 90
Lack of Data and Informationp. 91
Problem Formulationp. 92
Making Estimatesp. 92
Bladder Cancer from Saccharinp. 93
Penetration of a Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) Facility by a Meteoritep. 94
Referencesp. 95
Chapter Appendixp. 96
Regulationp. 97
The Regulatory Processp. 97
Why Have Regulatory Agencies?p. 100
Food Safety: An Examplep. 101
Ethical Systems and Valuesp. 104
The Legislative Componentp. 106
The Administrative Componentp. 107
The Judicial Componentp. 109
Additional Information about Federal Regulationp. 110
Referencesp. 112
Exposure Assessmentp. 113
Exposurep. 113
Planning an Exposure Assessmentp. 120
Purpose of the Exposure Assessmentp. 121
Using Exposure Assessments in Risk Assessmentp. 121
Using Exposure Assessments for Status and Trendsp. 122
Using Exposure Assessments in Epidemiologic Studiesp. 123
Scope of the Assessmentp. 123
Level of Detail of the Assessmentp. 124
Determining the Approach for the Exposure Assessmentp. 124
Establishing the Exposure Assessment Planp. 125
Planning an Exposure Assessment as Part of a Risk Assessmentp. 125
Limited vs. Repeated Exposuresp. 126
Dose-Rate Effectsp. 126
Reversibility of Toxicological Processesp. 126
Composition of the Exposed Populationp. 127
Establishing the Sampling Strategyp. 127
Data Quality Objectivesp. 127
Sampling Planp. 128
Quality Assurance Samplesp. 130
Background Levelp. 130
Quality Assurance and Quality Controlp. 130
Quality Assurance and Quality Control for Previously Generated Datap. 130
Selection and Validation of Analytical Methodsp. 131
Sources of Exposurep. 131
Fate and Transport Modelsp. 131
Exposure Modelsp. 147
Physical Transport in Surface Watersp. 151
Groundwaterp. 151
Atmospherep. 152
Intake Calculationsp. 152
Inhalationp. 152
Water Ingestionp. 153
Soil Ingestionp. 154
Dermal Absorptionp. 155
Dermal Absorption from Waterp. 155
Dermal Exposures from Soilp. 156
Some Standard Values for Soil Dermal Exposurep. 157
Example Calculationp. 157
Food Absorptionp. 157
Example of Food Absorptionp. 158
Multimedia-Multipathway Exposures and Modelsp. 159
Most Important Design Elements in Multimedia-Multipathway Studiesp. 162
National Human Exposure Assessment Surveyp. 162
Potential Problems in Multimedia-Multipathway Studiesp. 165
Sources of Additional Informationp. 168
Referencesp. 168
Risk Assessment: Dosimetryp. 173
Dose (and some terminology)p. 173
Dosimetric Measurementsp. 179
Dosimetric Routesp. 180
Absorption, Distribution, Metabolism, and Eliminationp. 182
Pharmacokineticsp. 184
Physiological Pharmacokineticsp. 190
Sources of Additional Information about Dosimetryp. 193
Referencesp. 194
Epidemiologyp. 197
Introduction to Epidemiologyp. 197
Epidemiological Methodsp. 204
Distributions in Epidemiologyp. 206
Epidemiological Surveysp. 206
Case Reports, Case Series, and Cross-Sectional Studiesp. 207
Case-Control Studiesp. 208
Cohort Studiesp. 208
Deficiencies of Observational Studiesp. 209
Controlled Studiesp. 209
Hazard and Causationp. 211
Epidemiology in Transitionp. 216
The Impact of Information Technologyp. 217
The Effect of Specializationp. 217
The Perspective of Riskp. 217
Cancer Epidemiologyp. 218
Exposure-Response Relationships in Epidemiologyp. 224
Meta-analysisp. 227
The Public Health Paradigmp. 231
Epidemiological Uncertaintiesp. 232
Sources of Additional Information about Epidemiologyp. 233
Referencesp. 235
Toxicologyp. 237
Toxicologyp. 237
Weight of the Evidence in Toxicologyp. 250
Exposure-Response Relationships in Toxicologyp. 251
The Toxicology of Carcinogensp. 256
Safety Assessmentp. 261
Additional Information about Toxicologyp. 266
Referencesp. 268
Risk Characterizationp. 271
Bringing Potency and Exposure Estimates Togetherp. 271
Exposure-Response Modeling Errors--Trichloroethylenep. 272
Combining Estimated Error Ranges--Radon from Drinking Waterp. 279
Combining Error Ranges--Monte Carlo Analysis of Trichloroethylenep. 283
Conclusionsp. 288
Referencesp. 288
Comparative Risk Analysisp. 291
Introductionp. 291
Comparative Environmental Risk Assessmentsp. 292
General Comparative Risk Assessmentsp. 292
Generation of Electric Powerp. 294
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Unfinished Business Reportp. 297
Reducing Risk--Report of EPA's Science Advisory Boardp. 299
Disinfection of Drinking Waterp. 300
Hazard Ranking Systemp. 301
Problems with Comparative Environmental Risk Assessmentsp. 302
Discussionp. 304
Change the Philosophical Approach?p. 304
Who Needs to See the "Big Picture"?p. 306
Observationsp. 307
Summaryp. 308
Conclusionsp. 309
Referencesp. 309
Ecological Risk Analysisp. 311
Introductionp. 311
Laws Requiring Ecological Risk Assessmentp. 311
What Is Ecological Risk Assessment?p. 313
Ecological Characteristicsp. 314
Ecological Stressorsp. 314
Screening and Testing of Chemicalsp. 315
The Ecological Risk Analysis Processp. 318
Problem Formulationp. 322
Analysisp. 323
Risk Estimationp. 326
Referencesp. 327
Risk Management: Values and Decisionsp. 329
Introductionp. 329
What Do Values and Ethics Have to Do With Risk Management?p. 329
Valuesp. 330
Introductionp. 330
Values in Toxicologyp. 331
Values in Environmental Risk Decision Makingp. 332
Some Conceptual Decision Modelsp. 334
Ideal Modelp. 335
The National Academy of Sciences' "Red Book" Modelp. 335
Cost-Benefit Analysis and Risk-Risk Balancingp. 336
A Framework Modelp. 337
A Channel Modelp. 338
An Overlay Modelp. 340
Continuous Modelp. 340
The National Academy of Sciences "Orange Book" Modelp. 342
Other National Academy of Sciences Reports about Risk Managementp. 342
The Presidential Risk Assessment and Risk Management Commission Modelp. 342
Unreasonable Riskp. 344
Risk Magnitude Modelsp. 344
Making Regulatory Decisionsp. 345
Costsp. 351
Conclusionsp. 351
Referencesp. 353
Risk Communicationp. 357
Introduction to Risk Communicationp. 357
Risk Perceptionp. 360
Fulton's Listp. 362
The Seven Cardinal Rules of Risk Communicationp. 363
Other Approaches to Risk Communicationp. 364
Public Interactionsp. 365
Risk Communication Plansp. 369
Some General Tipsp. 370
Constraints on Risk Communicationp. 371
Communications Mediap. 372
Some Common Trapsp. 372
Summary of Risk Communicationsp. 373
Referencesp. 373
Case Studiesp. 375
Introductionp. 375
Ecological Risk Assessment--Acidic Depositionp. 375
Arsenic and Cancerp. 375
Electromagnetic Fieldsp. 376
Environmental Tobacco Smokep. 376
Indoor Airp. 376
Radonp. 376
Case Study: Ecological Risk Assessment--Acidic Depositionp. 377
Introductionp. 377
Problem Formulationp. 379
Analysisp. 379
Risk Characterizationp. 381
Referencesp. 382
Case Study: Arsenicp. 382
Introductionp. 382
Occurrence and Exposurep. 383
Non-Cancer Health Effectsp. 384
Cancerp. 385
Modes of Action (Mechanisms)p. 385
Nutritionp. 385
Exposure-Response Curvep. 386
Conclusionsp. 386
Drinking Water Standard for Arsenicp. 387
Conclusionp. 388
Referencesp. 388
Case Study: Electromagnetic Fieldsp. 388
Generalp. 389
Risk Analysisp. 389
Conclusionp. 389
Referencesp. 390
Case Study: Environmental Tobacco Smokep. 391
Introductionp. 391
Backgroundp. 392
Exposurep. 392
Hazard Assessment--Lung Cancerp. 395
Population Risk Estimates--Lung Cancerp. 396
Conclusionsp. 397
Referencesp. 397
Case Study: Indoor Airp. 398
Introductionp. 398
Common Symptoms and Responsesp. 399
Possible Sources of Agents that May Cause Diseasep. 400
Diagnosing Problem Buildingsp. 401
Why Are Indoor Air Quality Problems Not Better Understood and Generally Not Addressed?p. 402
What Can We Do?p. 403
Conclusionp. 404
Referencesp. 404
Case Study: Radonp. 405
Introductionp. 405
Why Is Radon Important?p. 405
Exposure: Mainly from Soils and Drinking Waterp. 407
Epidemiological studiesp. 408
Animal and Cellular Studiesp. 409
Quantitative Risk Assessmentp. 409
Public Reaction Is Widespread Apathyp. 410
Comparison between Risk Estimates for Exposure to Radon and Other Environmental Contaminantsp. 410
Referencesp. 411
Appendixp. 412
Indexp. 415
Table of Contents provided by Syndetics. All Rights Reserved.

ISBN: 9780865876965
ISBN-10: 0865876967
Audience: General
Format: Hardcover
Language: English
Number Of Pages: 433
Published: 1st January 2000
Publisher: GOVERNMENT INST PR
Country of Publication: US
Dimensions (cm): 25.91 x 18.54  x 3.3
Weight (kg): 1.02