| Introduction and Basic Risk Models | |
| Introduction | p. 1 |
| Distinguishing Characteristics Of Risk Analysis | p. 3 |
| The Traditional Health Risk Analysis Framework | p. 6 |
| Defining Risks: Source, Target, Effect, Mechanism | p. 8 |
| Basic Quantitative Risk Models | p. 10 |
| Risk as Probability of a Binary Event | p. 12 |
| A Binary Event with Time: Hazard Rate Models | p. 15 |
| Calculating and Interpreting Hazard Functions | p. 20 |
| Hazard Models for Binary Events | p. 25 |
| Probabilities of Causation for a Binary Event | p. 27 |
| Risk Models with Non-Binary Consequences | p. 32 |
| Health Risks from Human Activities | p. 34 |
| Risk Management Decision Support Sub-Models | p. 35 |
| Risk Assessment Modeling | p. 43 |
| Introduction | p. 43 |
| Approaches to QRA: Probability, Statistical, Engineering | p. 49 |
| Conditional Probability Framework for Risk Calculations | p. 53 |
| Calculating Average Individual Risks when Individuals Respond | p. 54 |
| Population Risks Modeled by Conditional Probabilities | p. 60 |
| Trees, Risks and Martingales | p. 64 |
| Value of Information in Risk Management Decisions | p. 67 |
| Basic Engineering Modeling Techniques | p. 71 |
| Compartmental Flow Simulation Models | p. 71 |
| Applications to Pharmacokinetic Models | p. 74 |
| Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis | p. 80 |
| Applied Probability and Stochastic Transition Models | p. 84 |
| Introduction to Exposure Assessment | p. 90 |
| A Case Study: Simulating Food Safety | p. 92 |
| Background: The Potential Human Health Hazard | p. 93 |
| Risk Management Setting: Many Decisions Affect Risk | p. 95 |
| Methods and Data: Overview of Simulation Model | p. 98 |
| Results: Baseline and Sensitivity Analysis of Options | p. 113 |
| Uncertainty Analysis and Discussion | p. 119 |
| Conclusions | p. 129 |
| Statistical Risk Modeling | p. 133 |
| Introduction | p. 133 |
| Statistical Dose-Response Modeling | p. 135 |
| Define Exposure and Response Variables, Collect Data | p. 136 |
| Select a Model Form for the Dose-Response Relation | p. 152 |
| Estimate Risk, Confidence Limits, and Model Fit | p. 167 |
| Interpret Results | p. 175 |
| Progress in Statistical Risk Modeling | p. 184 |
| Dealing with Model Uncertainty and Variable Selection | p. 186 |
| Dealing with Missing Data: New Algorithms and Ideas | p. 189 |
| Mixture Distribution Models for Unobserved Variables | p. 192 |
| Summary of Advances in Statistical Risk Modeling | p. 198 |
| A Statistical Case Study: Soil Sampling | p. 200 |
| Causality | p. 217 |
| Introduction | p. 217 |
| Statistical vs. Causal Risk Modeling | p. 219 |
| Criteria for Causation | p. 224 |
| Traditional Epidemiological Criteria for Causation | p. 224 |
| Proposed Criteria for Inferring Probable Causation | p. 229 |
| Bayesian Evidential Reasoning and Refutationism | p. 234 |
| Testing Causal Graph Models with Data | p. 240 |
| Causal Graph Models and Knowledge Representation | p. 246 |
| Meaning of Causal Graphs | p. 250 |
| Testing Hypothesized Causal Graph Structures | p. 253 |
| Creating Causal Graph Structures from Data | p. 259 |
| Search, Optimization, and Model-Averaging Heuristics | p. 265 |
| Using Causal Graphs in Risk Analysis | p. 269 |
| Drawing Probabilistic Inferences in DAG Models | p. 269 |
| Applications of DAG Inferences in Risk Assessment | p. 274 |
| Using DAG Models to Make Predictions | p. 276 |
| Decision-Making and Optimization | p. 279 |
| Attributable Risks in Causal Graphs | p. 283 |
| Why is Risk Attribution Hard? | p. 283 |
| Principles for Risk Attribution | p. 288 |
| Conclusions | p. 299 |
| Individual Risk Management Decisions | p. 301 |
| Introduction | p. 301 |
| Value Functions and Risk Profiles | p. 302 |
| Rational Individual Risk-Management via Expected Utility (EU) | p. 307 |
| EU Decision-Modeling Basics | p. 308 |
| Decision-Making Algorithms and Technologies | p. 310 |
| Optimization Modeling for Risk Management Decisions | p. 314 |
| Axioms for EU Theories | p. 319 |
| EU Theory Challenges and Alternatives to EU Theory | p. 321 |
| Cognitive Heuristics and Biases Violate Reduction | p. 322 |
| Other Violations of EU Axioms | p. 332 |
| Subjective Probability and Subjective Expected Utility (SEU) | p. 334 |
| Beyond SEU: Adaptive Decision-Making with Unknown Models | p. 344 |
| Conclusions | p. 349 |
| Choosing Among Risk Profiles | p. 351 |
| Introduction | p. 351 |
| Basic EU Theory for Single-Attribute Consequences | p. 352 |
| Certainty Equivalents | p. 353 |
| Risk Attitudes, Risk Aversion, and Prospect Theory | p. 354 |
| Intrinsic Value and Exponential Utility | p. 358 |
| Non-Exponential SAUT Utility Functions | p. 362 |
| Objective Comparisons of Risk Profiles | p. 365 |
| First-Order Stochastic Dominance (FSD) | p. 368 |
| Extensions of FSD | p. 382 |
| Higher-Order Stochastic Dominance and Risk Definitions | p. 384 |
| Extensions of SSD | p. 389 |
| Conclusions | p. 390 |
| Multi-Attribute, Multi-Person, and Multi-Period Risks | p. 393 |
| Introduction | p. 393 |
| Multiattribute Utility Theory (MAUT) | p. 394 |
| Basics of Multiattribute Value and Utility Theory | p. 394 |
| Some Practical Aspects of MAUT | p. 400 |
| Applications of MAUT to Health Risks | p. 401 |
| Using MAUT to Develop Health Status Indicators | p. 401 |
| Independence Conditions and QALYs | p. 402 |
| Money Values for Reductions in Risks to Life | p. 403 |
| Perceived Risk of Risk Profiles | p. 408 |
| Risks to Multiple People: Risk Equity | p. 411 |
| Beyond MAUT: MCDM Approaches | p. 416 |
| Choosing Among Temporal Prospects | p. 419 |
| Discounting of Delayed and Gradual Consequences | p. 419 |
| Sequential Choices and Effects of Event Sequencing | p. 426 |
| Repeated Choices and Iterated Prospects | p. 427 |
| Preferences for Timing of Uncertainty Resolution | p. 427 |
| Changeable and Uncertain Preferences | p. 431 |
| Choosing Among Stochastic Processes for Health States | p. 433 |
| Conclusions | p. 438 |
| Multi-Party Risk Management Decision Processess | p. 441 |
| Introduction: Risk Management Decision Processes | p. 441 |
| Social Utility: Modern Utilitarianism | p. 453 |
| Game Theory: Basic Ideas | p. 456 |
| Evolutionary Game Theory and Learning | p. 459 |
| Mechanism Design | p. 459 |
| Two-Person Games of Risk Management | p. 461 |
| Prisoner's Dilemma: Individual vs. Group Rationality | p. 461 |
| Moral Hazard in Insurance | p. 464 |
| Inefficiencies Due to Asymmetric Private Information | p. 467 |
| Designing Product Liability Standards | p. 468 |
| Principal-Agent (PA) Models | p. 471 |
| Bargaining and Contracts for Allocating Liability | p. 474 |
| Litigation and Bargaining Under Arbitration | p. 483 |
| Potential Roles for a Social Decision-Maker (SDM) | p. 486 |
| Property Rights and Risk Externalities | p. 488 |
| Agreeing on Rules: Social Contracts | p. 492 |
| Bargaining from Behind a "Veil of Ignorance" | p. 495 |
| Collective Choice and Social Choice Functions (SCFs) | p. 496 |
| Fair Allocation, Fair Division, and Fair Auctions | p. 501 |
| Introduction to Risk Communication | p. 504 |
| Toward More Effective Risk Presentations | p. 504 |
| Toward Designs for Better Risk Management Processes | p. 509 |
| Conclusion | p. 512 |
| References | p. 515 |
| Index | p. 545 |
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