| List of Tables | p. xiii |
| List of Charts | p. xv |
| Foreword | p. xix |
| Introduction and Summary | p. xxi |
| Acknowledgements | p. xxvii |
| How the Monetarists Came to Power | |
| Early Monetarism in the UK | p. 3 |
| The Money Study Group | p. 3 |
| The Manchester Inflation Workshop | p. 3 |
| Alan Walters | p. 4 |
| Brian Griffiths | p. 4 |
| Charles Goodhart | p. 4 |
| Peter Jay | p. 5 |
| Regular Publications and Forecasts | p. 5 |
| Greenwell's Monetary Bulletin | p. 6 |
| The Radcliffe Report | p. 6 |
| The Research Project | p. 6 |
| Introduction to Monetarism | p. 7 |
| Competition and Credit Control | p. 8 |
| The Timing of the Release of Banking Statistics | p. 8 |
| A Network of Financial Economists | p. 8 |
| First-Hand Knowledge | p. 9 |
| The Team | p. 9 |
| The Early Bulletins | p. 11 |
| Keynesian and Monetarist Forecasts | p. 11 |
| The Transmission Mechanism | p. 12 |
| Speed of Production | p. 14 |
| Guru Status | p. 14 |
| Pressure from Clients | p. 15 |
| Pressure from the Bank | p. 17 |
| Fly on the Wall during the Thatcher Revolution | p. 20 |
| A Bow Group Meeting | p. 20 |
| The Labour Government | p. 21 |
| Mrs Thatcher | p. 22 |
| Monetary Base Control | p. 23 |
| Geoffrey Howe | p. 24 |
| Nigel Lawson | p. 25 |
| The Advent of Thatcherism | p. 27 |
| The Sight of an Abyss | p. 27 |
| The Search for Change | p. 28 |
| Financial Disruption | p. 28 |
| Gradualism | p. 29 |
| Two-Term Policy | p. 29 |
| Mrs Thatcher and Monetarism | p. 30 |
| Extract from Monetary Bulletin, no. 199, August 1988 | p. 32 |
| Extract from Monetary Bulletin, no. 139, January 1983 | p. 34 |
| Monetarism in the 1980s | p. 37 |
| The Politics of Money Supply Targets | p. 37 |
| Managing Expectations | p. 38 |
| Curtailing Public Expenditure | p. 38 |
| Overcoming Political Resistance | p. 39 |
| Degree of Precision | p. 40 |
| Perverse Effect on Expectations | p. 41 |
| Vested Interests | p. 41 |
| Captured Regulators | p. 42 |
| Personal Integrity | p. 42 |
| Distortions to Data | p. 43 |
| Summary | p. 44 |
| Disagreement Among Monetarists | p. 44 |
| A Crucial Test of Monetarism | p. 44 |
| The Validity of Monetarism: Economic Forecasts in the 1970s and 1980s | |
| A Brief History of Macroeconomic Models | p. 47 |
| Forecasts Before the Advent of Models | p. 47 |
| Early Models | p. 48 |
| Finance | p. 48 |
| Incorporating New Ideas | p. 49 |
| The Three Main Models | p. 49 |
| The Accuracy of Routine Forecasts | p. 50 |
| Macroeconomic Models | p. 50 |
| Monetarist Forecasts | p. 51 |
| Other Forecasts | p. 51 |
| Market Failure | p. 52 |
| Conclusion | p. 52 |
| Major Events | p. 53 |
| Recessions | p. 53 |
| Inflations | p. 54 |
| Financial Crises | p. 55 |
| Conclusion | p. 55 |
| The Record of the Large Models | p. 56 |
| Sequences of Forecasts | p. 56 |
| Summary - Inflations | p. 57 |
| Summary - Recessions | p. 57 |
| Summary - Timing of Earliest Warnings | p. 58 |
| Predictions Made a Fixed Period Ahead | p. 58 |
| Summary of Forecasts Made a Fixed Period Ahead | p. 59 |
| Forecasts Made After the Start of the Year Being Forecast | p. 59 |
| Forecasts Made Between Three Months in Advance and the Start of the Year Being Forecast | p. 59 |
| Forecasts Made Between Six and Three Months in Advance of the Year Being Forecast | p. 62 |
| Forecasts Made More Than Six Months in Advance of the Year Being Forecast | p. 62 |
| Conclusions | p. 62 |
| Sequences of Forecasts - Detail | p. 63 |
| Forecasts of Inflation - Data | p. 63 |
| Forecasts of Inflation - Predictions | p. 63 |
| The National Institute of Economic and Social Research | p. 63 |
| The London Business School | p. 67 |
| The Treasury | p. 69 |
| Forecasts of Recession - Data | p. 71 |
| Forecasts of Recession - Predictions | p. 73 |
| The National Institute of Economic and Social Research | p. 73 |
| The London Business School | p. 77 |
| The Treasury | p. 78 |
| Predictions Made a Fixed Period Ahead - Detail | p. 82 |
| Treasury Predictions of Growth of GDP | p. 83 |
| Treasury Predictions of Inflation | p. 85 |
| LBS Predictions of Growth of GDP | p. 87 |
| LBS Predictions of Inflation | p. 92 |
| NIESR Predictions of Growth of GDP | p. 97 |
| NIESR Predictions of Inflation | p. 102 |
| Reference Tables | p. 106 |
| A Monetarist Forecast | p. 134 |
| Summary - Forecasts That Were Basically Correct | p. 134 |
| The Record - Inflations | p. 135 |
| The Record - Recessions | p. 135 |
| The Record - Financial Crises | p. 136 |
| Summary - Forecasts That Were Incorrect and 'Wobbles' | p. 136 |
| Incorrect Prediction in 1977 of Recession After the IMF Measures | p. 136 |
| Unfounded Worries in the Early 1980s About Inflation | p. 137 |
| 'Wobble' After the Stock Market Crash in October 1987 | p. 137 |
| Assessment | p. 137 |
| Conclusion | p. 138 |
| The Record in Detail | p. 139 |
| Predictions of the 1970-1 Recession | p. 139 |
| Predictions of the 1973-5 Inflation | p. 139 |
| Predictions of the 1974-5 Recession | p. 141 |
| Predictions of the Sterling Crisis in October 1976 | p. 142 |
| Incorrect Prediction in 1977 of Recession After the IMF Measures | p. 144 |
| Predictions of the 1979-80 Inflation | p. 145 |
| Predictions of the 1979-81 Recession | p. 147 |
| Unfounded Worries About Inflation in the Early 1980s | p. 148 |
| Predictions of the 1989-90 Inflation | p. 151 |
| Predictions of the 1987 Stock Market crash | p. 152 |
| 'Wobble' After the Stock Market Crash in October 1987 | p. 152 |
| Predictions of the 1990-2 Recession | p. 154 |
| Refinements, Further Evidence and Policy Implications | |
| The 'Liverpool Six' | p. 159 |
| The Shadow Monetary Policy Group | p. 159 |
| The Liverpool Six | p. 160 |
| The Current State of Knowledge | p. 161 |
| The Use of M0 and M1 as Indicators | p. 161 |
| Non-interest-bearing M1 | p. 163 |
| Conclusions About Narrow Money | p. 163 |
| The Use of Broad Money for Forecasting | p. 164 |
| The Supply of Broad Money | p. 164 |
| The Demand for Broad Money | p. 165 |
| Disequilibrium | p. 166 |
| Conclusion About Broad Money | p. 167 |
| Turning Points | p. 167 |
| Conclusions About Turning Points | p. 168 |
| Practical Points | p. 168 |
| Assessing the Adequacy of Monetary Growth | p. 168 |
| Time Lags | p. 169 |
| Momentum | p. 170 |
| Levels Versus Flows | p. 170 |
| The Influence of the Exchange Rate | p. 170 |
| Corporate Versus Personal Sectors | p. 171 |
| Financial Versus Spending Counterparts | p. 171 |
| Reasons for Borrowing from a Bank | p. 171 |
| Two Types of Monetary Disequilibrium | p. 172 |
| The Forecasts of Other Monetarists | p. 174 |
| Patrick Minford | p. 175 |
| Recessions | p. 175 |
| Inflations | p. 177 |
| Summary | p. 177 |
| Alan Walters | p. 178 |
| Tim Congdon | p. 179 |
| 1989-90 Inflation - Warnings Prior to October 1986 | p. 179 |
| Forecasts After October 1986 | p. 181 |
| Warning of the 1990-2 Recession | p. 181 |
| Overall Conclusion | p. 183 |
| Reference Tables | p. 184 |
| Conclusions and Policy Implications | p. 192 |
| Fine-Tuning the Economy | p. 192 |
| Major Economic Events | p. 192 |
| Money Supply Policy | p. 193 |
| Control of the Money Supply | p. 193 |
| How Quickly Should the Authorities React to Undesirable Monetary Growth? | p. 193 |
| The Optimum Solution | p. 194 |
| Notes | p. 195 |
| References | p. 203 |
| Glossary | p. 206 |
| Names Index | p. 210 |
| Subject Index | p. 212 |
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