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Future Trends from Past Cycles : Identifying Share Price Trends and Turning Points Through Cycle, Channel and Probability Analysis - Brian Millard

Future Trends from Past Cycles

Identifying Share Price Trends and Turning Points Through Cycle, Channel and Probability Analysis

Paperback Published: 10th September 2010
ISBN: 9781871857047
Number Of Pages: 304

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Harnessing probabilities with groundbreaking precision Future Trends from Past Cycles explains how to identify potential future trends and turning points in equity prices (short, long and medium-term) by analysing past cycles in market data. Brian Millard's renowned technical expertise and mathematical insight forms the basis of this fascinating guide, built around a blend of cycle, channel and probability analysis. With a thoroughly documented methodology, and numerous worked examples at every step of the process, this is an exceptionally lucid and insightful contribution to the literature of technical analysis. It will help the trader to harness probabilities to their advantage, and to limit their risk, with greater precision than ever before. Finding the key 10% with a trading triple lock This book teaches you how to use cycles in your trading in a way that hasn't been attempted previously. At its heart are the three disciplines of cycle, channel and probability analysis, which ensure a triple lock on probability - massively reducing the blind spots and speculative nature common to more one-dimensional technical approaches. While the general view of technical analysts is that virtually all securities can be analysed for future movement, the detailed workings and research in this book shows that this is not the case. Only a small number, around 10%, have cycles which extrapolation shows to be currently in a stable state and which therefore would appear to be predictable. Brian Millard details the mechanics of identifying this 10% - estimating the stability of trend positions, drawing probability boundaries for price positions, and deducing the core probability of any given price trend. He looks closely at the various forms of risk at play in the markets, uncovers the hidden mathematics of price movement, and shows how to simulate future movements; as well as presenting ideas on the best new ways to read cycles, evaluate mathematical trends, plot moving averages and anticipate turning points. Like the work of J. M. Hurst, Millard's forbear, Future Trends "shows what is possible when approaching the markets with a measured, logical technique based on firm mathematical and scientific logic." It is the essential final book from an acclaimed technical analyst and author.

List of Figuresp. xi
List of Tablesp. xxix
Introductionp. 1
Definition of a Trendp. 3
Definition of a Cyclep. 3
Determining Trendsp. 3
Risk and the Marketsp. 9
Sources of Riskp. 9
How Prices Move (I)p. 19
Coin Tossingp. 20
Rising and Falling Trendsp. 22
How Prices Move (II)p. 29
The Normal Distributionp. 29
Simulating Future Movementp. 45
Monte Carlo Simulationp. 47
Cycles and the Marketp. 59
Properties of Sine Wavesp. 61
Cycles in the Stock Marketp. 66
Research on Market Cyclesp. 71
Trends and the Marketp. 75
Mathematical Trendsp. 76
Extrapolating a trend linep. 87
Properties of Moving Averagesp. 91
Calculation of Moving Averagesp. 91
Averages as Proxies for Trendsp. 111
Probabilities From Centred Averagesp. 114
Boundaries and Channelsp. 119
Trend Turning Points (I)p. 125
Short-term Trendsp. 127
Trend Turning Points (II)p. 145
Estimation of Channel Directionp. 145
Trend Turning Points (III)p. 175
Why Does Channel Analysis Work?p. 202
Cycles and Sums of Cyclesp. 207
Extrapolation of Cyclesp. 210
The Comparatorp. 213
Failure of Extrapolationsp. 234
Bringing it All Togetherp. 237
Four Key Stepsp. 237
Conclusionp. 265
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

ISBN: 9781871857047
ISBN-10: 187185704X
Series: Harriman House
Audience: General
Format: Paperback
Language: English
Number Of Pages: 304
Published: 10th September 2010
Publisher: Qudos Publications
Country of Publication: GB
Dimensions (cm): 25.4 x 17.8  x 1.6
Weight (kg): 0.56