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Experts in Uncertainty : Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science - Roger M. Cooke

Experts in Uncertainty

Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science

Hardcover Published: 24th October 1991
ISBN: 9780195064650
Number Of Pages: 336

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This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.

[An] excellent volume....No one...has systematically and methodically addressed how subjective probabilities ought to be used in estimating and evaluating societal risks. This is the accomplishment of the Cooke volume."--Risk "Displays the state of the art in the techniques of using expert opinion for estimating contingencies that cannot be assessed directly....To be warmly welcomed as a contribution to a discussion which is by no means ended."--New Scientist "The strengths of the book are its comprehensive examination of the contemporary practice and use of expert opinion, and its detailed case studies as illustrations. Its style is clear and the exposition of ideas well organized and thoroughly and intelligently presented."--Choice "The book is the first to provide an account of this novel field and provides an admirable survey of many ideas emerging therein." --Mathematical Reviews "A very useful, readable survey of the economic, statistical, psychological, and mathematical considerations that arise in using expert opinion. It will be excellent background reading for my students."--A. Paltiel, Harvard School of Public Health [An] excellent volume....No one...has systematically and methodically addressed how subjective probabilities ought to be used in estimating and evaluating societal risks. This is the accomplishment of the Cooke volume."--Risk "Displays the state of the art in the techniques of using expert opinion for estimating contingencies that cannot be assessed directly....To be warmly welcomed as a contribution to a discussion which is by no means ended."--New Scientist "The strengths of the book are its comprehensive examination of the contemporary practice and use of expert opinion, and its detailed case studies as illustrations. Its style is clear and the exposition of ideas well organized and thoroughly and intelligently presented."--Choice "The book is the first to provide an account of this novel field and provides an admirable survey of many ideas emerging therein." --Mathematical Reviews "A very useful, readable survey of the economic, statistical, psychological, and mathematical considerations that arise in using expert opinion. It will be excellent background reading for my students."--A. Paltiel, Harvard School of Public Health "[An] asset of the volume is its clarity of exposition and its quantitative precision....Cooke's work displays an impressive encyclopedic knowledge....His analysis displays his analytic skills as well as his years of experience in applying his methods to the solution of problems in scientific, technological, industrial, and environmental risk assessment....The book is a "must read" for risk assessors, decision theorists, policymakers, mathematicians, and environmentalists as well as social, political, and moral philosophers."--Ethics "It is, broadly speaking, about the speculations, guesses, and estimates of people who are considered experts, in so far as they serve as "cognitive input" in some decision process. . .The subject matter therefore overlaps disciplines from philosophy through policy analysis up to some rather technical mathematics." --Quarterly of Applied Mathematics

Introductionp. xi
Experts and Opinionsp. 1
Think Tanks and Oraclesp. 3
Conclusions: Toward a Methodology for Expert Opinionp. 17
Expert Opinion in Practicep. 19
Probabilistic Thinkingp. 47
Heuristics and Biasesp. 63
Building Rational Consensusp. 80
Subjective Probabilityp. 85
Savage's Normative Decision Theoryp. 87
Relative Frequencies and Exchangeabilityp. 108
Elicitation and Scoringp. 121
Scoring Rules for Evaluating and Weighing Assessmentsp. 136
Two Experiments with Calibration and Entropyp. 158
Combining Expert Opinionsp. 169
Combining Expert Opinions; Review of the Literaturep. 171
Conclusionp. 186
The Classical Modelp. 187
The Bayesian Modelp. 199
Psychological Scaling Models: Paired Comparisonsp. 211
Applicationsp. 221
Conclusionsp. 268
Mathematical Framework and Interpretationp. 273
Tablesp. 285
Referencesp. 299
Author Indexp. 315
Subject Indexp. 319
Table of Contents provided by Publisher. All Rights Reserved.

ISBN: 9780195064650
ISBN-10: 0195064658
Series: Environmental Ethics & Science Policy
Audience: Professional
Format: Hardcover
Language: English
Number Of Pages: 336
Published: 24th October 1991
Country of Publication: US
Dimensions (cm): 24.33 x 16.59  x 3.33
Weight (kg): 0.63