In recent years, the study of cointegrated time series and the use of error correction models have become extremely popular in the econometric literature. This is an analysis of the notion of (weak) exogeneity, which is necessary to sustain valid inference in sub-systems, in the framework of error correction models (ECMs). In many practical situations, the applied econometrician wants to introduce "structure" to a model in order to get economically meaningful coefficients. For this purpose, ECMs in structural form provide an appealing framework, allowing the researcher to introduce (theoretically motivated) identification restrictions on the long run relationships. In this case, the validity of the inference will depend on a number of conditions which are investigated here. In particular, it is stressed that orthogonality tests, often used to test for weak exogeneity or for general misspecification, behave poorly in finite samples and are often not very useful in cointegrated systems.
1 Introduction and Summary.- 2 Cointegrated Systems.- 2.1 Some Historical Background to the Modelling of Economic Time Series.- 2.2 Integration and Cointegration.- 2.3 The Modelling of Cointegrated Systems.- 2.4 Cointegration and Conditional Sub-systems.- 2.5 Error Correction Models.- 2.6 Conclusions.- 3 Weak Exogeneity in ECMs.- 3.1 Weak Exogeneity.- 3.1.1 Definition and example.- 3.1.2 Empirical motivations.- 3.2 Reduced Form Error Correction Models.- 3.2.1 The error correction system in reduced form.- 3.2.2 Single equation error correction model in reduced form and weak exogeneity.- 3.3 ECMs in Structural Form.- 3.3.1 The error correction system in structural form.- 3.3.2 Single equation error correction model in structural form and weak exogeneity.- 3.4 Inference on Weak Exogeneity in ECMs.- 3.4.1 Are orthogonality tests useful in single equation ECMs.- 3.4.2 Testing for the presence of cointegrating vectors in the marginal models.- 3.5 Empirical Illustration.- 3.5.1 Belgium consumption function: Steel (1987).- 3.5.2 Aggregate import demand function: Urbain (1988).- 3.5.3 The UK demand for money: Lubrano et al. (1986), Steel and Richard (1991).- 3.6 Conclusions.- 4 Testing for Weak Exogeneity.- 4.1 Introduction.- 4.2 Exogeneity and the Incomplete SEM.- 4.3 The Behaviour of Orthogonality Tests in the Presence of (Co)-Integrated Variables.- 4.3.1 Testing for weak exogeneity within a limited information framework.- 4.3.2 Small sample behaviour: some simulation evidence.- 4.3.3 Asymptotic distribution.- 4.4 Testing for Weak Exogeneity in ECMs where the Short Run Dynamic Parameters are Parameters of Interest.- 4.5 Conclusions.- 5 Empirical Analysis: The Case of Aggregate Imports.- 5.1 Background.- 5.1.1 The imperfect substitutes model for aggregate trade flows.- 5.1.2 Econometric issues in trade modelling.- 5.2 System versus Partial Approach to the Modelling of Belgium Aggregate Imports.- 5.2.1 Univariate analysis.- 5.2.2 Multivariate cointegration and simultaneous equation models.- 5.2.3 Partial modelling of aggregate imports: a structural ECM.- 5.3 Conclusions.- 6 Conclusions.- Author Index.
Series: Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems
Number Of Pages: 189
Published: January 1993
Publisher: Springer-Verlag Berlin and Heidelberg Gmbh & Co. Kg
Country of Publication: DE
Dimensions (cm): 24.2 x 17.0
Weight (kg): 0.37