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Engineering Risk in Natural Resources Management : With Special References to Hydrosystems Under Changes of Physical or Climatic Environment - Lucien Duckstein

Engineering Risk in Natural Resources Management

With Special References to Hydrosystems Under Changes of Physical or Climatic Environment

By: Lucien Duckstein (Editor), Eric Parent (Editor)

Hardcover Published: 30th September 1994
ISBN: 9780792330103
Number Of Pages: 474

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The purpose of this paper is to present a methodology for estimating space-time stochastic properties of local climatic factors reflecting global climate change. Specifically, daily precipitation amount and daily mean temperature are considered and illustrated with application to the state of Nebraska, U. S. A. Furthermore, a drought index with and without global climate change is examined. The magnitude and consequences of regional response to anticipated climatic changes are uncertain (Houghton et al. , 1990). Typical questions to be answered are: can time series of hydrological events or 10cal climatic variables such as daily temperature be conditioned in scenarios of future climate change and if so, how can this be utilized ? Can extreme historical drought events be reproduced by a stochastic hydroc1imatological model ? Can such a model be used with General Circu1ation Model (GCM) outputs to evaluate the regional/local effects of climate change scenarios? The approach presented in this paper is an extension of the usual analysis of regional hydrometeorological impacts of climate change: we propose to examine time series of GCM­ produced daily atmospheric circulation patterns (CP), thought to be relatively accurate GCM output to estimate local climatic factors. The paper is organized as follows. First, daily CPs are classified and analyzed statistically, first for historical and then for GCM produced data. Next, the height of the 500 hPa pressure field is introduced as an additional physically relevant variable influencing local climatic factors within each CP type.

Preface
Systems engineering of natural resources under changing physical conditions : A framework for reliability and riskp. 5
Systems engineering of natural resources under changing physical conditions : State of the art in systems modelingp. 21
Design and control of water systems under unsteady conditionsp. 45
Institutional analysis and water resources managementp. 59
Numerical models for the simulation of natural and anthropogenic climate variationsp. 81
Estimation of local climatic factors under climate changep. 97
Synergistic effect of dam and forecast on flood probabilities: a Bayesian analysisp. 131
Some reliability measures for nonstationary Markov chainsp. 149
Statistical detection of changes in geophysical seriesp. 159
Risk analysis of hydrologic data : review and new developments concerning the Halphen distributionsp. 177
Estimation of extreme regional precipitation under climate changep. 195
Detection and modeling of the impact of climatic change on river flowsp. 207
Sea level rise problemsp. 219
Climatic changes during the 20th century on the Laurentian Great lakes and their impacts on hydrologic regimep. 235
Sediment yield and pollution from small watersheds under changing climatic conditionsp. 253
Water quality in coastal zones under variable climatic conditionsp. 267
Report of Panel 1 : Global change, a statistical myth ?p. 285
Inference and decision under near ignorance conditionsp. 291
Design and control of water systems in presence of inflow scenariosp. 305
Risk of extreme flood losses under uncertain physical conditionsp. 321
Sea level rise : A probabilistic design problemp. 331
Quantitative analysis of uncertainties in water resources. Application for predicting the effects of changesp. 343
Strategic decisions under nonstationary conditions : a stopping-control paradigmp. 359
Report of Panel 2 : When and how should we act?p. 373
Managing water resources for adaptation to climate changep. 379
The effects of climate change on storm surgesp. 395
Evaluating climate change impacts on the management of the Great Lakes of North Americap. 417
Water management in the Neste systemp. 435
Planning and management of water resources in the southwest of France in a dynamic physical, social and economic environmentp. 449
Balancing reservoir management and water conservation : Application to hydropower and irrigationp. 455
Report of Panel 3 : To act or not to act ?p. 465
Indexp. 469
Table of Contents provided by Blackwell. All Rights Reserved.

ISBN: 9780792330103
ISBN-10: 0792330102
Series: NATO Science Series E:
Audience: General
Format: Hardcover
Language: English
Number Of Pages: 474
Published: 30th September 1994
Publisher: SPRINGER VERLAG GMBH
Country of Publication: NL
Dimensions (cm): 23.39 x 15.6  x 2.69
Weight (kg): 0.86

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