Economics Global Warming (Iie)

By: William Cline

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Paperback | 1 July 1993 | Edition Number 1

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416 Pages

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2.27 x 1.53 x 0.19

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This study examines the costs and benefits of an aggressive program of global action to limit greenhouse warming. An initial chapter summarizes the scientific issues from the standpoint of an economist. The analysis places heavy emphasis on efforts over a long run of 200 to 300 years, with much greater warming and damages than associated with the conventional benchmark (a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere). Estimates are presented for economic damages, ranging from agricultural losses and sea-level rise to loss of forests, water scarcity, electricity requirements for air conditioning, and several other major effects. A survey of existing model estimates provides the basis for calculation of costs of limiting emissions of greenhouse gases. After a review of the theory of term discounting in the context of very-long-term environmental issues, the study concludes with a cost-benefit estimate for international action and a discussion of policy measures to mobilize the global response.

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Not only the best balanced and fairest economist's treatment... but also is a single source for many of the climatological, agricultural and ecological aspects of the issue... His ideas and approach deserve the widest possible readership.--Stephen H. Schneider, National Center for Atmospheric Research Essential reading for economists with any interest in global climate change.--Richard Schmalensee "Journal of Economic Literature " The analysis is most impressive and will make a very important contribution to the debate over global warming.--Dale W. Jorgenson, Harvard University

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Non-Fiction Politics & Government Central Government Central Government Policies Economics Environmental Economics International Economics Engineering & Technology Environmental Science Science Biology, Life Sciences Business & Management

Preface	p. ix
Acknowledgments	p. xi
Summary	p. 1
The Scientific Framework and Very-Long-Term Warming	p. 4
Economic Damage	p. 5
Abatement Costs	p. 6
Time Discounting	p. 7
Benefit-Cost Synthesis	p. 8
Policy Implications	p. 9
The Scientific Basis for the Greenhouse Effect	p. 11
Science and the Emergence of the Policy Issue	p. 13
The Greenhouse Effect	p. 15
The Carbon Cycle	p. 16
Other Trace Gases	p. 17
General Circulation Models	p. 19
Radiative Forcing and Global Warming	p. 20
Feedback Estimates	p. 22
Aerosols and Masking by Urban Pollution	p. 25
The Empirical Evidence	p. 26
The Ecological and Economic Impact	p. 30
Critiques and Response	p. 32
Very-Long-Term Warming	p. 33
Catastrophe Scenarios	p. 34
Unavoidable Warming	p. 35
Geoengineering	p. 36
Scientific Research Agenda	p. 38
Conclusion	p. 40
Global Warming in the Very Long Term	p. 41
Fossil Fuel Supply	p. 45
Establishing the Appropriate Time Horizon	p. 46
Carbon Emissions and Atmospheric Concentration	p. 50
Very-Long-Term Warming	p. 54
The Influence of CFCs	p. 59
Illustrative Regional Extent of Very-Long-Term Warming	p. 61
Nonlinear Impact	p. 72
Avoiding Long-Term Warming	p. 73
The Pace of Warming and the Price of Delaying Action	p. 75
Caveat Lector	p. 76
The Economic Benefits of Limiting Global Warming	p. 79
Analytical Framework	p. 82
Inherent Damage Limits?	p. 86
Agriculture	p. 87
Forests	p. 101
Species Loss	p. 104
Sea-Level Rise	p. 107
Space Cooling and Heating	p. 112
Human Amenity	p. 115
Life and Morbidity	p. 116
Migration	p. 119
Hurricane Damage	p. 120
The Construction Sector	p. 122
Leisure Activities	p. 122
Water Supply	p. 123
Urban Infrastructure	p. 127
Pollution	p. 128
Overview	p. 130
The Welfare Effects of Agricultural Yield Reductions Resulting from Global Warming	p. 134
Economic Models of Carbon Reduction Costs: An Analytical Survey	p. 139
Analytical Framework	p. 141
Principal Models	p. 152
Synthesis of Findings	p. 185
Conclusion	p. 191
Nonlinearity of the Carbon Tax Curve	p. 192
Carbon Abatement Costs: Engineering Estimates and Forestry Options	p. 195
Attainable Efficiency Gains and Carbon Reductions: Illustrations	p. 199
An Overview of Potential Carbon Reductions	p. 203
Implementation: Obstacles and Instruments	p. 214
Forestry Measures	p. 216
A Synthesis of Abatement Costs	p. 227
Conclusion	p. 232
Time Discounting for Global Warming Analysis	p. 233
Investment Versus Consumption Sourcing	p. 236
Issue- and Policy-Specific Discount Rates	p. 238
Intergenerational Comparison	p. 238
The Environmental Complication	p. 240
Preferred Method	p. 243
Shadow Pricing Capital Effects	p. 245
Estimating the Social Rate of Time Preference	p. 247
Relationship to Discounted Utility Maximization	p. 255
Reality Check: An Intuitive Approach	p. 256
Observed Market Rates	p. 257
A Declining Social Rate of Time Preference?	p. 262
Policy Differences Among Government Entities	p. 263
The Investment Fund Alternative	p. 265
Overview	p. 266
Shadow Pricing Capital in Benefit-Cost Analysis: A Note on Bradford Versus Lind	p. 270
Benefit-Cost Synthesis	p. 275
General Approach	p. 277
The Benefit-Cost Model	p. 278
Variable Baselines and Parameter Values	p. 284
Adaptation	p. 295
Benefit-Cost Results	p. 296
Policy Choice Under Uncertainty with Risk Aversion	p. 297
Sensitivity Analysis	p. 301
Catastrophe Analysis	p. 303
A Malthusian Scenario	p. 305
Comparison With the Nordhaus Results	p. 307
Insurance and the Value of Information	p. 309
Overview	p. 311
The Nordhaus Optimal Emissions Models	p. 312
The Manne-Richels Model of Greenhouse Insurance	p. 318
Toward an International Policy Strategy	p. 321
Overarching Issues	p. 324
Achieving Cooperation	p. 325
Efficient and Equitable Mechanisms to Limit Emissions	p. 346
Global Development Context	p. 357
The State of Play	p. 361
A Blueprint for Action	p. 367
Other Greenhouse Gases	p. 375
Conclusion	p. 376
Postscript	p. 378
References	p. 381
Index	p. 393
Tables
Global warming in the very long term	p. 52
Increases in July average daily maximum temperature from very-long-term global warming for 66 US cities	p. 68
Increase in mean daily summer maximum temperature from very-long-term global warming in 60 cities worldwide	p. 70
Commitment to global warming under alternative scenarios	p. 74
Estimates of agricultural yield changes from global warming, various countries	p. 98
Rough estimate of the impact of carbon-dioxide-equivalent doubling on agriculture, selected countries	p. 99
Costs associated with a one-meter rise in sea level, selected countries and territories	p. 111
Estimates of annual damage from global warming to the US economy at 1990 scale	p. 131
Nordhaus cost function for greenhouse gas reduction	p. 168
Alternative cost estimates for reductions in carbon emissions, 1990-2100	p. 186
Stylized parameters for carbon reduction costs	p. 190
Energy consumption in the United States, by type, 1988	p. 200
Alternative estimates of the scope for energy savings and carbon reduction in the United States	p. 204
Alternative estimates of US emissions reductions resulting from National Academy of Sciences moderate-cost measures	p. 209
Afforestation costs in the United States	p. 222
Alternative estimates of global costs of carbon reductions, 2025-2100	p. 229
Forestry options: carbon reduction and global costs, 1990-2100	p. 230
Impact of time discounting over 200 years	p. 236
Weighted consumer discount rate: premium above Treasury bill	p. 260
Central features of the benefit-cost analysis	p. 279
Variables and parameter values	p. 290
Results of benefit-cost analyses of abatement of greenhouse warming, principal cases	p. 298
Sensitivity analysis of benefits and costs of abatement of greenhouse warming	p. 302
Nordhaus model equations	p. 313
The top 50 carbon-emitting countries	p. 330
Mean temperature increase under carbon-dioxide-equivalent doubling, various countries and regions	p. 333
Future carbon emissions, excluding deforestation, by region	p. 337
Country policy positions on greenhouse warming as of mid-1991	p. 362
Figures
Temperature variations in the northern hemisphere, 1880-1990	p. 29
Carbon dioxide production under alternative fossil fuel consumption scenarios	p. 47
Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations under alternative fossil fuel consumption scenarios	p. 48
Carbon dioxide concentration and radiative forcing in the very long term	p. 59
Radiative forcing from all greenhouse gases and commitment to equilibrium global mean temperature rise in the very long term	p. 60
Equilibrium warming for carbon-dioxide-equivalent doubling, Western Hemisphere: June-August	p. 63
Equilibrium warming for carbon-dioxide-equivalent doubling, Eastern Hemisphere: June-August	p. 64
Equilibrium warming for carbon-dioxide-equivalent doubling, Western Hemisphere: December-February	p. 65
Equilibrium warming for carbon-dioxide-equivalent doubling, Eastern Hemisphere: December-February	p. 66
Welfare effects of lower agricultural yields under constant costs	p. 135
Welfare effects of lower agricultural yields with diminishing returns	p. 137
Carbon taxes, revenues, and economic cost	p. 148
Alternative estimates of the output costs of reducing carbon emissions	p. 184
The marginal product of carbon	p. 193
Hypothetical carbon reduction cost curves	p. 198
Engineering-based estimates of carbon reduction costs	p. 212
Economics of afforestation for carbon sequestration	p. 218
The trade-off between environmental and other goods and services	p. 242
Costs and benefits of aggressive abatement of greenhouse warming, 1990-2270	p. 280
Prisoners' dilemma: payoff matrix	p. 326
Benefits and costs of abatement of greenhouse warming with and without free riding	p. 327
Fossil fuel elasticities and the carbon tax	p. 349
Table of Contents provided by Syndetics. All Rights Reserved.

Economics Global Warming (Iie)

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