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Economic Forecasting : An Introduction - Ken Holden

Economic Forecasting

An Introduction

Paperback Published: 3rd June 1991
ISBN: 9780521356923
Number Of Pages: 224

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This book provides an introduction to the methods employed in forecasting the future state of the economy. It is the only text currently available which provides a comprehensive coverage of methods and applications in this fast-growing area. Part I outlines the available techniques, including those used in business forecasting and econometric forecasting. Part II considers the most important applications of forecasting.

List of figuresp. vii
List of tablesp. vii
Prefacep. ix
Techniquesp. 1
Introduction to forecasting methodsp. 3
Why forecasts are neededp. 3
Methods of forecastingp. 6
A review of business forecasting techniquesp. 8
Econometric forecastingp. 29
Evaluating forecastsp. 33
Conclusionsp. 41
Time-series methodsp. 43
Introductionp. 43
Stochastic models of time seriesp. 45
Box-Jenkins modellingp. 50
A worked examplep. 64
Vector autoregression modelsp. 69
Cointegrationp. 76
Deterministic and stochastic trendsp. 80
Non-linear time seriesp. 82
Combining forecastsp. 85
Introductionp. 85
The variance-covariance methodp. 85
The regression methodp. 88
Serial correlation problemsp. 91
Other methods of combinationp. 93
Practical suggestions for combining forecastsp. 96
The Makridakis forecasting competitionp. 100
Applicationsp. 109
Microeconomic forecastingp. 111
Introductionp. 111
Demand forecastingp. 112
Sales and market share forecasting for companiesp. 123
Anticipations data and leading indicatorsp. 127
Scenario analysisp. 134
Other techniquesp. 136
Forecasting with macroeconomic modelsp. 140
Introductionp. 140
Nature of macroeconomic modelsp. 140
A simple macroeconomic modelp. 144
Preparing the forecastp. 145
Judgmental adjustments and forecast errorsp. 150
Forecasting the 1980-1982 recessionp. 151
Decomposition of macroeconomic forecastsp. 153
Accuracy of macroeconomic forecastsp. 158
Conclusionsp. 162
Forecasting asset market pricesp. 164
Introductionp. 164
The efficient markets hypothesisp. 164
Foreign exchange marketsp. 167
Stock market pricesp. 178
Commodity pricesp. 181
Conclusionsp. 182
Conclusionsp. 183
The choice between different techniquesp. 183
Current developmentsp. 187
Economic forecasting and government policyp. 189
Referencesp. 191
Author indexp. 205
Subject indexp. 210
Table of Contents provided by Syndetics. All Rights Reserved.

ISBN: 9780521356923
ISBN-10: 052135692X
Audience: Tertiary; University or College
Format: Paperback
Language: English
Number Of Pages: 224
Published: 3rd June 1991
Country of Publication: GB
Dimensions (cm): 22.81 x 15.9  x 1.52
Weight (kg): 0.35

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