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Ecology, Biodiversity and Conservation : Risks and Decisions for Conservation and Environmental Management - Mark Burgman

Ecology, Biodiversity and Conservation

Risks and Decisions for Conservation and Environmental Management

Paperback Published: 11th May 2005
ISBN: 9780521543019
Number Of Pages: 504

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This book outlines how to conduct a complete environmental risk assessment. The first part documents the psychology and philosophy of risk perception and assessment, introducing a taxonomy of uncertainty and the importance of context. It provides a critical examination of the use and abuse of expert judgement and goes on to outline approaches to hazard identification and subjective ranking that account for uncertainty and context. The second part of the book describes technical tools that can assist risk assessments to be transparent and internally consistent. These include interval arithmetic, ecotoxicological methods, logic trees and Monte Carlo simulation. These methods have an established place in risk assessments in many disciplines and their strengths and weaknesses are explored. The last part of the book outlines some new approaches, including p-bounds and information-gap theory, and describes how quantitative and subjective assessments can be used to make transparent decisions.

'This book is a must for all in resource management ...' Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand '... aimed at a high level, graduate or higher, audience ... a clear assessment of relevant theories and the concepts required both to understand and undertake qualitative and quantitative risk assessments, and then to make realistic decisions from those assessments.' Journal of Biomedical Education

Prefacep. ix
Acknowledgementsp. xi
Values, history and perceptionp. 1
Uncertainty and denialp. 1
Chance and beliefp. 6
The origin of ideas about riskp. 10
Perceptionp. 13
The pathology of risk perceptionp. 19
Discussionp. 24
Kinds of uncertaintyp. 26
Epistemic uncertaintyp. 26
Linguistic uncertaintyp. 33
Discussionp. 39
Conventions and the risk management cyclep. 42
Risk assessments in different disciplinesp. 44
A common context for environmental risk assessmentp. 50
The risk management cyclep. 54
Discussionp. 60
Experts, stakeholders and elicitationp. 62
Who's an expert?p. 65
Who should be selected?p. 70
Eliciting conceptual modelsp. 73
Eliciting uncertain parametersp. 75
Expert frailtiesp. 82
Are expert judgements any good?p. 94
When experts disagreep. 100
Behavioural aggregationp. 103
Numerical aggregationp. 107
Combined techniquesp. 113
Using expert opinionp. 120
Who's a stakeholder?p. 121
Discussionp. 124
Conceptual models and hazard assessmentp. 127
Conceptual modelsp. 127
Hazard identification and assessmentp. 130
Discussionp. 142
Risk rankingp. 145
Origins of risk ranking methodsp. 145
Current applicationsp. 147
Conducting a risk ranking analysisp. 149
Pitfallsp. 151
Performancep. 155
Examplesp. 158
Discussionp. 165
Ecotoxicologyp. 169
Dose-response relationshipsp. 170
Extrapolationp. 177
Deciding a safe dosep. 188
Transport, fate and exposurep. 192
Examplesp. 199
Discussionp. 205
Logic trees and decisionsp. 207
Event treesp. 207
Fault treesp. 223
Logic trees and decisionsp. 229
Discussionp. 240
Interval arithmeticp. 242
Worst case analysisp. 242
Defining and eliciting intervalsp. 247
Interval arithmeticp. 254
Discussionp. 262
Monte Carlop. 264
The modelling processp. 265
Kinds of distributionsp. 268
Choosing the right distributionsp. 272
Generating answersp. 280
Dependenciesp. 283
Extensions of Monte Carlop. 287
Sensitivity analysesp. 290
Some examplesp. 291
How good are Monte Carlo predictions?p. 306
p-boundsp. 310
Discussionp. 313
Inference, decisions, monitoring and updatingp. 318
Monitoring and powerp. 318
Calculating powerp. 322
Flawed inference and the precautionary principlep. 334
Overcoming cognitive fallacies: confidence intervals and detectable effect sizesp. 338
Control charts and statistical process controlp. 342
Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curvesp. 357
Discussionp. 368
Decisions and risk managementp. 370
Policy and riskp. 370
Strategic decisionsp. 377
Stochastic analyses and decisionsp. 383
Info-gapsp. 391
Evaluating attitudes to decisionsp. 399
Risk communicationp. 410
Adaptive management, precaution and stakeholder involvementp. 416
Conclusionsp. 421
Glossaryp. 423
Referencesp. 457
Indexp. 485
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

ISBN: 9780521543019
ISBN-10: 0521543010
Series: Ecology, Biodiversity and Conservation
Audience: Professional
Format: Paperback
Language: English
Number Of Pages: 504
Published: 11th May 2005
Publisher: CAMBRIDGE UNIV PR
Country of Publication: GB
Dimensions (cm): 20.68 x 13.72  x 2.52
Weight (kg): 0.91