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Decision Making : Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Interactions - David E. Bell

Decision Making

Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Interactions

By: David E. Bell (Editor), Howard Raiffa (Editor), Amos Tversky (Editor)

Paperback

Published: 10th July 1989
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The analysis of decision making under uncertainty has again become a major focus of interest. This volume presents contributions from leading specialists in different fields and provides a summary and synthesis of work in this area. It is based on a conference held at the Harvard Business School. The book brings together the different approaches to decision making - normative, descriptive, and prescriptive - which largely correspond to different disciplinary interests. Mathematicians have concentrated on rational procedures for decision making - how people should make decisions. Psychologists have examined how poeple do make decisions, and how far their behaviour is compatible with any rational model. Operations researchers study the application of decision models to actual problems. Throughout, the aim is to present the current state of research and its application and also to show how the different disciplinary approaches can inform one another and thus lay the foundations for the integrated analysis of decision making. The book will be of interest to researchers, teachers - for use as background reading for a decision theory course - students, and consultants and others involved in the practical application of the analysis of decision making. It will be of interest to specialists and students in statistics, mathematics, economics, psychology and the behavioural sciences, operations research, and management science.

Prefacep. ix
Introductionp. 1
Overview Paper
Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Interactions in Decision Makingp. 9
Conceptions of Choice
Bounded Rationality, Ambiguity, and the Engineering of Choicep. 33
Rationality as Process and as Product of Thoughtp. 58
Normative Theories of Decision Making Under Risk and Under Uncertaintyp. 78
Risky Choice Revisitedp. 99
Behavioral Decision Theory: Processes of Judgment and Choicep. 113
Reply to Commentariesp. 147
Response Mode, Framing, and Information-Processing Effects in Risk Assessmentp. 152
Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisionsp. 167
Savage Revisitedp. 193
Beliefs and Judgments about Uncertainties
Languages and Designs for Probability Judgmentp. 237
Updating Subjective Probabilityp. 266
Probability, Evidence, and Judgmentp. 284
The Effects of Statistical Training on Thinking about Everyday Problemsp. 299
Values and Utilities
The Mind as a Consuming Organp. 343
Disappointment in Decision Making Under Uncertaintyp. 358
Marginal Value and Intrinsic Risk Aversionp. 384
Knowing What You Want: Measuring Labile Valuesp. 398
Sources of Bias in Assessment Procedures for Utility Functionsp. 422
Simplicity in Decision Analysis: an Example and a Discussionp. 443
Value-Focused Thinking and the Study of Valuesp. 465
Areas of Application
Behavior Under Uncertainty and Its Implications for Policyp. 497
The Relevance of Quasi Rationality in Competitive Marketsp. 508
How Senior Managers Thinkp. 525
Problems in Producing Usable Knowledge for Implementing Liberating Alternativesp. 540
On the Framing of Medical Decisionsp. 562
Whether or not to Administer Amphotericin to an Immunosuppressed Patient with Hematologic Malignancy and Undiagnosed Feverp. 569
The Effect of Private Attitudes on Public Policy: Prenatal Screening for Neural Tube Defects as a prototypep. 588
Discussion Agenda for the Session on Medical Decision Making and Minutes of a Group Discussion on Clinical Decision Makingp. 599
Discussion rapporteur
Indexp. 613
Table of Contents provided by Syndetics. All Rights Reserved.

ISBN: 9780521368513
ISBN-10: 0521368510
Audience: Professional
Format: Paperback
Language: English
Number Of Pages: 636
Published: 10th July 1989
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Country of Publication: GB
Dimensions (cm): 22.8 x 15.2  x 3.9
Weight (kg): 0.95