List of Figures | |
List of Tables | |
Abbreviations | |
High Inflation, Growth Crisis, and Reform: Historical Perspective and Brief Overview | p. 1 |
Recent Comparative International Experience | p. 1 |
Explosive Hyperinflations of the 1920s | p. 3 |
Chronic High Inflation in Recent History | p. 6 |
Emergence of the 'Heterodox' Approach to Stabilization | p. 11 |
Structural Crisis and Reform as Protracted Processes: An Overview of the Issues | p. 14 |
The Gathering Storm: Israel's Structural Crisis in the 1970s | p. 23 |
Growth and Productivity: A Historical Perspective | p. 25 |
International Comparison of Growth and Inflation | p. 27 |
The Government Budget: From Growth to Redistribution | p. 30 |
Ballooning Internal and External Debt | p. 34 |
Implications for the Structure of Employment | p. 36 |
Savings, Investments, and Rates of Return | p. 38 |
The Self-Reinforcing Nature of the Structural Crisis: A Partial Summary | p. 40 |
Shocks and Accommodation: The Dichotomy and Mechanics of High Inflation | p. 42 |
Budget Finance, Seigniorage, and Average Inflation | p. 44 |
From Single- to Three-Digit Inflation: The Changing Trade-off between Real GDP, Inflation, and the Current Account | p. 49 |
Aggregate Supply and Demand, and the Analytics of Nominal Anchors | p. 59 |
Time-Invariance of the Basic Inflation Equation | p. 63 |
Backward Indexation and Changing Inflation Dynamics | p. 67 |
Mathematical Appendix | p. 76 |
Preparing for a Comprehensive Stabilization Programme 1981-1985: Doctrinal Debates, Politics, and Trial by Error | p. 78 |
Introduction: Ideas, Economists, and Politicians | p. 78 |
Economists' Changing Views on Exchange Rates, Inflation, and Stabilization | p. 80 |
A Digression on the Players in the Political Game | p. 84 |
Deepening Crisis, Lebanon, and a Dollarization Fiasco, 1981-1984 | p. 87 |
The National Unity Government in its First Year (1984-1985), or The Fine Art of Muddling Through | p. 92 |
Economists are Finally Given a Chance | p. 96 |
Outline of the July Programme | p. 102 |
Politics and the Social Wage Contract | p. 106 |
The Fight over Stabilization and the Structural Adjustment Process, 1985-1991 | p. 108 |
Phase 1: Early Tests of Fiscal and Exchange-Rate Credibility | p. 112 |
Phases 2 and 3: The Post-Stabilization Business Cycle | p. 119 |
Establishing Fiscal Credibility | p. 128 |
The Struggle over the Establishment of a Nominal Anchor: Credibility and Learning | p. 134 |
A Digression on the Role of Price Controls and their Removal | p. 143 |
Structural Adjustment and the Reform Process | p. 147 |
Latin American Comparisons: Failures, Successes, Heterogeneity | p. 156 |
Chile: From Democracy to a Socialist Experiment | p. 158 |
The Military Government and the Lessons of Pure Orthodoxy | p. 162 |
From Tablita to Confidence Crisis | p. 164 |
Recovery and Normalization: Reaping the Benefits of Reform | p. 168 |
How Different was Argentina from Chile in the 1970s? | p. 171 |
Argentina and Bolivia in 1985: Why was the Austral Plan Short-Lived? | p. 175 |
Price Controls without Fundamentals: Brazil and Argentina in 1986-1990 | p. 182 |
Argentina's 1991 Convertibility Plan: Has the Turning-Point Finally Come? | p. 188 |
Mexico's Successful Heterodox Stabilization and Reform | p. 190 |
Stabilization and Reform in Eastern Europe | p. 200 |
Yugoslavia's Inflation in the 1980s and the 1989-1990 Reform Effort | p. 207 |
Poland and the East European Economies: Initial Conditions and Country Programmes | p. 211 |
Stabilization: Was the Initial Price Shock Necessary? | p. 218 |
Was the Output Collapse Unavoidable? | p. 224 |
Was the Fiscal Balance Sustainable? | p. 230 |
What to Do with Bad Loan Portfolios and Enterprise Arrears? | p. 234 |
Privatization of Large State-Owned Enterprises: What to Do during the (Long) Transition? | p. 238 |
The Ingredients of Macro-Policy during the Transition | p. 241 |
Synthesis, Policy Lessons, and Open Questions | p. 248 |
Common Factors in Crisis Entry or Avoidance | p. 250 |
Crisis, Macro-Policy, and Reform: A Diagrammatic Exposition | p. 256 |
Why are Stabilizations and Reforms Delayed? | p. 262 |
Components of a Stylized Stabilization and Structural Reform | p. 268 |
The Sequencing and the Speed of Implementation | p. 273 |
References | p. 280 |
Index of Subjects | p. 291 |
Index of Names | p. 298 |
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