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Complex Population Dynamics : A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis (MPB-35) - Peter Turchin

Complex Population Dynamics

A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis (MPB-35)

Paperback

Published: 2nd February 2003
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Why do organisms become extremely abundant one year and then seem to disappear a few years later? Why do population outbreaks in particular species happen more or less regularly in certain locations, but only irregularly (or never at all) in other locations? Complex population dynamics have fascinated biologists for decades. By bringing together mathematical models, statistical analyses, and field experiments, this book offers a comprehensive new synthesis of the theory of population oscillations.

Peter Turchin first reviews the conceptual tools that ecologists use to investigate population oscillations, introducing population modeling and the statistical analysis of time series data. He then provides an in-depth discussion of several case studies--including the larch budmoth, southern pine beetle, red grouse, voles and lemmings, snowshoe hare, and ungulates--to develop a new analysis of the mechanisms that drive population oscillations in nature. Through such work, the author argues, ecologists can develop general laws of population dynamics that will help turn ecology into a truly quantitative and predictive science.

"Complex Population Dynamics" integrates theoretical and empirical studies into a major new synthesis of current knowledge about population dynamics. It is also a pioneering work that sets the course for ecology's future as a predictive science.

"Turchin has to be congratulated for the conceptual clarity of the book... I especially recommend the book's first two parts to anyone interested in how to model and analyze population fluctuations... Turchin offers researchers and students alike interesting material and a great deal to think about."--Esa Ranta, Science "This book contributes profoundly to the literature... [It] may have a huge impact on the field."--Nils Chr. Stenseth, Nature "A superbly written text offering many fresh insights both pragmatic and profound... Throughout the book, Turchin manages to present complex material in an informal style with clarity and eloquence."--Douglas H. Deutschman, Ecology

Prefacep. xi
Mathematical Symbolsp. xv
Theory
Introductionp. 3
At the Sourcesp. 3
The Puzzle of Population Cyclesp. 3
Modeling Naturep. 4
The Balance of Naturep. 5
General Philosophy of the Approachp. 6
Defining the Phenomenon to Be Explainedp. 8
Formalizing Hypotheses as Mathematical Modelsp. 11
Contrasting Models with Datap. 14
Population Dynamics from First Principlesp. 17
Introductionp. 17
Exponential Growthp. 19
Derivation of the Exponential Modelp. 20
Comparison with the Law of Inertiap. 22
"Laws": Postulates, Theorems, Empirical Generalizations?p. 25
p. Self-Limitation
Upper and Lower Density Boundsp. 26
Formalizing the Notion of Self-Limitationp. 27
The Logistic Modelp. 29
Consumer-Resource Oscillationsp. 30
Three More Postulatesp. 31
The Lotka-Volterra Predation Modelp. 33
Process Orderp. 36
Synthesisp. 44
Single-Species Populationsp. 47
Models without Population Structurep. 47
Continuous-Time Modelsp. 48
Discrete-Time Modelsp. 52
Delayed Differential Modelsp. 56
Exogenous Driversp. 58
Stochastic Variationp. 60
Deterministic Exogenous Factorsp. 61
Age-and Stage-Structured Modelsp. 64
Mathematical Frameworksp. 65
An Example: Flour Beetle Dynamicsp. 68
Second-Order Modelsp. 70
Maternal Effect Hypothesisp. 70
Kin Favoritism Modelp. 72
Synthesisp. 76
Trophic Interactionsp. 78
Responses of Predators to Fluctuations in Prey Densityp. 79
Functional Responsep. 79
Aggregative Responsep. 88
Numerical Responsep. 90
Continuous-Time Modelsp. 93
Generalized Lotka-Volterra Modelsp. 94
Models Not Conforming to the LV Frameworkp. 99
Anatomy of a Predator-Prey Cyclep. 102
Generalist Predatorsp. 104
Discrete-Time Models: Parasitoidsp. 108
Functional and Numerical Responsesp. 109
Dynamical Modelsp. 111
Grazing Systemsp. 112
Grazer''s Functional Responsep. 113
Dynamics of Vegetation Regrowthp. 117
Dynamics of Grazer-Vegetation Interactionsp. 120
Plant Qualityp. 123
Pathogens and Parasitesp. 127
Transmission Ratep. 127
Microparasitism Modelsp. 128
Macroparasitism Modelsp. 131
Tritrophic Modelsp. 133
Synthesisp. 136
Connecting Mathematical Theory to Empirical Dynamicsp. 137
Introductionp. 137
Qualitative Types of Deterministic Dynamicsp. 139
Attractorsp. 139
Sensitive Dependence on Initial Conditionsp. 140
Population Dynamics in the Presence of Noisep. 146
Simple Population Dynamicsp. 146
Stable Periodic Oscillationsp. 147
Chaotic Oscillationsp. 148
Quasi-Chaotic Oscillationsp. 151
Regular Exogenous Forcingp. 153
Synthesisp. 153
Population Regulationp. 154
Definition of Density Dependencep. 155
Regulation: Evolution of the Conceptp. 156
The Stationarity Definition of Regulationp. 156
Beyond Stationarity: Stochastic Boundednessp. 157
Synthesisp. 158
Data
Empirical Approaches: An Overviewp. 163
Introductionp. 163
Analysis of Population Fluctuationsp. 164
The Structure of Density Dependencep. 164
Probes: Quantitative Measures of Time-Series Patternsp. 165
Phenomenological versus Mechanistic Approachesp. 167
Experimental Approachesp. 168
Phenomenological Time-Series Analysisp. 173
Basicsp. 173
Variance Decompositionp. 173
Data Manipulations Prior to Analysisp. 175
Diagnostic Toolsp. 178
Fitting Models to Datap. 183
General Frameworkp. 183
Choosing the Base Lagp. 186
Functional Formsp. 188
Model Selection by Cross-Validationp. 191
Synthesisp. 195
Fitting Mechanistic Modelsp. 197
Model Selectionp. 198
Analysis of Ancillary Datap. 200
One-Step-Ahead Predictionp. 201
Trajectory Matchingp. 203
Fitting by Nonlinear Forecastingp. 205
Casestudies
Larch Budmothp. 213
Introductionp. 213
Analysis of Time-Series Datap. 217
Hypotheses and Modelsp. 220
Plant Qualityp. 220
Parasitismp. 229
Putting It All Together: A Parasitism-Plant Quality Modelp. 235
Synthesisp. 237
Southern Pine Beetlep. 239
Introductionp. 239
Analysis of Time-Series Datap. 240
Hypotheses and Modelsp. 243
General Review of Hypothesesp. 243
Interaction with Hostsp. 247
Interaction with Parasitoidsp. 253
The Predation Hypothesisp. 255
An Experimental Test of the Predation Hypothesisp. 259
Rationalep. 259
Resultsp. 264
Synthesisp. 271
Red Grousep. 272
Numerical Patternsp. 273
Hypotheses and Modelsp. 281
Overviewp. 281
Parasite-Grouse Hypothesisp. 282
Kin Favoritism Hypothesisp. 285
Experimentsp. 289
Density Manipulationp. 289
Parasite Manipulationp. 291
Synthesisp. 294
Voles and Other Rodentsp. 296
Introductionp. 296
Analysis of Time-Series Datap. 297
Methodological Issuesp. 297
Numerical Patternsp. 301
Hypotheses and Modelsp. 310
Maternal Effect Hypothesisp. 311
Interaction with Foodp. 316
Predationp. 317
Fitting the Predation Model by NLFp. 321
Lemmingsp. 325
Numerical Patternsp. 326
Testing Alternative Trophic Hypothesesp. 328
Lemming-Vegetation Dynamics at Barrowp. 331
Synthesisp. 335
Summary of Findingsp. 335
Towar a General Trophic Theory of Rodent Dynamicsp. 339
Snowshoe Harep. 344
Introductionp. 344
Numerical Patternsp. 345
Modelsp. 349
Experimentsp. 356
Synthesisp. 362
Ungulatesp. 365
Introductionp. 365
Interaction with Foodp. 368
Interaction with Predatorsp. 371
Numerical Dynamicsp. 376
Synthesisp. 381
General Conclusionsp. 383
What Mechanisms Drive Oscillations in Nature?p. 383
Structure of Density Dependencep. 386
What about Chaos?p. 390
Population Ecology: A Mature Sciencep. 392
Glossaryp. 397
Referencesp. 405
Indexp. 437
Table of Contents provided by Publisher. All Rights Reserved.

ISBN: 9780691090214
ISBN-10: 0691090211
Series: Monographs in Population Biology
Audience: Tertiary; University or College
Format: Paperback
Language: English
Number Of Pages: 472
Published: 2nd February 2003
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Country of Publication: US
Dimensions (cm): 21.6 x 14.0  x 3.18
Weight (kg): 0.57