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AIDS Epidemiology : A Quantitative Approach - Ron Brookmeyer

AIDS Epidemiology

A Quantitative Approach


Published: 6th January 1994
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The AIDS epidemic has spread worldwide, and nearly 300,000 cases have been reported in the United States alone. Statisticians and epidemiologists are called upon to design and correctly interpret studies on the prevention and control of disease caused by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and to estimate the magnitude and future course of the epidemic. In addition to a comprehensive discussion of methods for gauging the extent of the epidemic and forecasting AIDS incidence, this book presents methods and results concerning the risks of HIV transmission, the incubation period of HIV infection, markers of disease progression, prevention strategies, including strategies to protect the blood supply, and the evaluation of treatments and vaccines. These topics are presented quantitatively, with an emphasis on the strengths and weaknesses of available data. The book highlights how a naive statistical approach to the design or analysis of such studies can lead to seriously misleading results. The various methods of monitoring and forecasting HIV disease and AIDS incidence are given thorough treatment. These methods include back-calculation, which the authors developed; interpretations of survey data on HIV prevalence and incidence; mathematical models for HIV transmission; and approaches that combine different types of epidemiological data. Much of the material in this book - such as a discussion of methods for assessing safety of the blood supply. an evaluation of survey approaches and methods to project pediatric AIDS incidence - has not been previously published.

"All in all this is an excellent book for epidemiologists and statisticians. It will help greatly in predicting what might happen in the future and show how one can change the figures as the facts are presented through the years. This is a highly recommended book for all academic and medical libraries." --AIDS Book Review Journal, University of Illinois at Chicago "One might say the authors of the book under review here became the John Graunts of the HIV epidemic. Working closely with the CDC, they were involved in the development of many of the statistical methods used in the analysis of HIV/AIDS data....This book gives a careful description of these methods. In addition, it gives much of the quantitative history of the epidemic in the United States....Should be of particular interest to biostatisticians and epidemiologists who deal with epidemiological data, but should also be of interest to infectious-disease scientists who are not necessarily quantitatively oriented....I would recommend the book both as a text and a reference." --Ira M. Longini, Jr., Emory University School of Public Health, Science "This volume presents the contributions that statistical science can make toward current stories in the prevention and control of diseases caused by Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), as well as estimating the magnitude and future course of the HIV epidemic."--American Journal of Public Health "[The authors] have accomplished their goals with a very clearly written, comprehensive, and well organized book.[They] provide a complete discussion, with examples, of the many biases that must be considered in using HIV/AIDS data. Their description of the back calculation method, which they developed, is an especially good presentation of the uses and limitation of this method for the estimation of HIV incidence....Should be read by all health professionals who need to understand the quantitative aspects of HIV/AIDS epidemics. It will also be a valuable reference book for anyone involved with clinical or epidemiological studies of HIV/AIDS." --Dr. James Chin, University of California, Berkeley, Epidemiology Monitor "This book, by two workers who have made very important contributions of their own, is an impressive and authoritative account of the subject....While the book is addressed to specialists, a general statistical reader who has not followed work on AIDS is likely to be interested and impressed by the wide range of ideas, techniques and special methods involved." --Short Book Reviews, a publication of the International Statistical Institute "That this book succeeds so well is a tribute to the authors' effort in evaluating statistical material, showing the relationship among differing approaches, and communicating clearly. The mathematical level rarely requires anything beyond a college calculus course and basic courses in probability, inference, and survival methods...the achievement of Brookmeyer and Gail, reflecting the work of hundreds of statisticians and other scientists, helps assure that appropriate methods will be used in the future - not only in AIDS research, but also in related problems as well. Because of its accessibility to a fairly broad readership it will be of interest to a wide range of quantitative scientists studying AIDS or other infectious diseases.--Victor DeGruttola, Harvard University "This book puts together most of the material available up to 1992 in a logical and structured approach, and I would highly commend the authors for the clarity and presentation of their review."--Journal of Public Health Medicine

1: Introduction 2: Risk Factors for Infection and the Probability of HIV Transmission 3: Surveys for Seroprevalence and Seroincidence 4: The Incubation Period Distribution 5: Cofactors and Markers 6: Screening and Accuracy of Tests for HIV 7: Statistical Issues in Surveillance of AIDS Incidence 8: Back-Calculation 9: Epidemic Transmission Models 10: Synthesizing Data Sources and Methods for Assessing the Scope of the Epidemic 11: Developing and Evaluating New Therapies and Vaccines

ISBN: 9780195076417
ISBN-10: 0195076419
Series: Monographs in Epidemiology and Biostatistics
Audience: Professional
Format: Hardcover
Language: English
Number Of Pages: 370
Published: 6th January 1994
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Country of Publication: GB
Dimensions (cm): 24.3 x 16.4  x 3.4
Weight (kg): 0.71