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Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, "The Theory That Would Not Die" is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest scientific controversies of all time. Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years - at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA decoding to Homeland Security. "The Theory That Would Not Die" is a vivid account of the generations-long dispute over one of the greatest breakthroughs in the history of applied mathematics and statistics.
"Superb.#160;"New York Review of Books" --Andrew Hacker "New York Review of Books "
| Preface and Note to Readers | p. ix |
| Acknowledgments | p. xii |
| Enlightenment and the Anti-Bayesian Reaction | p. 1 |
| Causes in the Air | p. 3 |
| The Man Who Did Everything | p. 13 |
| Many Doubts, Few Defenders | p. 34 |
| Second World War Era | p. 59 |
| Bayes Goes to War | p. 61 |
| Dead and Buried Again | p. 87 |
| The Glorious Revival | p. 89 |
| Arthur Bailey | p. 91 |
| From Tool to Theology | p. 97 |
| Jerome Cornfield, Lung Cancer, and Heart Attacks | p. 108 |
| There's Always a First Time | p. 119 |
| 46, 656 Varieties | p. 129 |
| To Prove Its Worth | p. 137 |
| Business Decisions | p. 139 |
| Who Wrote The Federalist? | p. 154 |
| The Cold Warrior | p. 163 |
| Three Mile Island | p. 176 |
| The Navy Searches | p. 182 |
| Victory | p. 211 |
| Eureka! | p. 213 |
| Rosetta Stones | p. 233 |
| Appendixes | p. 253 |
| Dr. Fisher's Casebook | p. 253 |
| Applying Bayes' Rule to Mammograms and Breast Cancer | p. 255 |
| Notes | p. 259 |
| Glossary | p. 271 |
| Bibliography | p. 275 |
| Index | p. 307 |
| Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved. |
ISBN: 9780300169690
ISBN-10: 0300169698
Audience:
General
Format:
Hardcover
Language:
English
Number Of Pages: 288
Published: 17th May 2011
Dimensions (cm): 24.6 x 16.7
x 2.773
Weight (kg): 0.638
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