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A debate will likely occur in 2009 about U.S. global national-security strategy. The authors describe and illustrate a methodology to help frame and evaluate resource-informed strategies. The core is an integrated portfolio-analysis approach that compares options by their anticipated effectiveness, risks, and resource implications, Three illustrative grand strategies are compared, which deal in different ways with the problems of our time.
| Preface | p. iii |
| Figures | p. ix |
| Tables | p. xi |
| Summary | p. xiii |
| Acknowledgments | p. xxxiii |
| Acronyms and Abbreviations | p. xxxv |
| Introduction | p. 1 |
| The Challenge: Resource-Informed Assessment and Recommendations | p. 1 |
| Enhancing the National, Joint Perspective | p. 2 |
| Aligning Joint Responsibilities, Authorities, and Resources | p. 2 |
| Partnership with the Military Departments | p. 3 |
| Need for an Integrated Portfolio Framework | p. 4 |
| Outline of the Monograph | p. 6 |
| The Operating-Unit Perspective | p. 9 |
| Motivations | p. 9 |
| The Logic of the Operating-Unit Framework | p. 9 |
| The Framework as a Next Step in Jointness | p. 10 |
| Cautions | p. 11 |
| Current COCOMs and "National Command" | p. 12 |
| Current COCOMs | p. 12 |
| A National Command for Analytic Purposes | p. 14 |
| Characterizing Alternative Strategies in Terms of Implications for Operating Units (COCOMs) | p. 17 |
| Overview | p. 17 |
| Expressing Strategy and Goals | p. 17 |
| Planning for Adaptiveness | p. 18 |
| The Analytic Flow | p. 19 |
| Elements of the Process | p. 20 |
| Operating-Unit Objectives | p. 20 |
| Capabilities Needed to Meet Operating-Unit Objectives | p. 21 |
| Programs and Force Shifts to Develop Needed Capabilities | p. 21 |
| Resource Implications | p. 22 |
| Application to Some Illustrative Strategies | p. 25 |
| Characterizing the Strategies | p. 25 |
| Premises of the Alternative Strategies | p. 25 |
| Contrasting Goals, Approaches, and Preparations for Adaptation | p. 27 |
| The Possibility of Failure and the Need for Strategic Adaptiveness | p. 27 |
| Objectives of COCOMs | p. 27 |
| Capabilities Needed by Operating Units | p. 30 |
| Actions: Programs and Force Shifts to Address Capability Needs | p. 33 |
| An Analytic Baseline | p. 33 |
| Programs and Force Shifts to Support the Direct GWOT/COIN Strategy | p. 42 |
| Programs and Force Shifts to Support the Build Local, Defend Global Strategy | p. 45 |
| Programs and Force Shifts to Support the Respond to Rising China Strategy | p. 54 |
| Alternative Expressions of Costs | p. 59 |
| Principles | p. 59 |
| Total Costs of Strategy | p. 61 |
| Sensitivities to Discount Rate and the Convention for Calculating NPV | p. 67 |
| The Special Costs of War or Other Intensive Operations | p. 68 |
| Costs When Strategies Fail | p. 69 |
| Other Cost Breakdowns, by Service, COCOM, and Combinations | p. 72 |
| Noneconomic Costs | p. 72 |
| Integrated Portfolio Analysis of Illustrative Strategies | p. 73 |
| Basic Concepts | p. 73 |
| Capabilities-Based Planning and Portfolio Management | p. 73 |
| Methods for Portfolio Analysis | p. 75 |
| The Alternative Strategies | p. 78 |
| Effectiveness Comparisons | p. 80 |
| Nominal Comparison of Risks | p. 85 |
| Uncertainty: Consequences of Different Perspectives and Assumption Sets | p. 88 |
| A Modern Approach to Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | p. 89 |
| The Dubious Concept of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Across Categories of Goodness | p. 89 |
| A Nominal Analysis | p. 91 |
| Reflecting Different Perspectives and Assumptions | p. 92 |
| A First Cut at Exploratory Analysis for Alternative Military Strategies | p. 94 |
| Using Portfolio Analysis to Improve Strategies | p. 101 |
| The Need to Balance the Risks Better | p. 101 |
| Hedges to Improve Strategic and Operational Adaptiveness | p. 103 |
| Summary Objective: Strategy That Is Flexible, Adaptive, and Robust (a "FAR Strategy") | p. 104 |
| Conclusions | p. 107 |
| Methodology, Tools, and Analysis | p. 107 |
| Using the Methods and Tools | p. 108 |
| Attributes of Good Strategic Analysis | p. 108 |
| Challenges | p. 109 |
| Next Steps for Research and Applications | p. 111 |
| Appendix | |
| Responsibilities of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff | p. 113 |
| The Portfolio Analysis Tool | p. 115 |
| A Tool for Customized Reporting | p. 119 |
| Documentation of Cost Estimates | p. 127 |
| Treatment of Risks | p. 145 |
| Bibliography | p. 157 |
| Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved. |
ISBN: 9780833045027
ISBN-10: 0833045024
Audience:
Professional
Format:
Paperback
Language:
English
Number Of Pages: 202
Published: September 2008
Dimensions (cm): 22.9 x 15.2
x 1.5
Weight (kg): 0.318
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