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After Iraq

Where Next for the Middle East?

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American and British troops are not going to stay in Iraq for ever. But what will happen when they start to leave? In this lucid and enormously readable book, acclaimed analyst Gwynne Dyer predicts that the Middle East will go through the biggest shake-up since the region became part of the Ottoman Empire five centuries ago - and argues that the rest of the world should stand back and leave them to it.Taking a step back from issues of blame and ideology, Dyer looks at what motivates the key players in the Middle East, from the various Iraqi factions through Iran, Lebanon and Syria to Israel and the Palestinians - not to mention the United States and the United Kingdom. Along the way, he shatters many myths and identifies the real threats to the status quo - such as the enormous Iraqi refugee problem, and the demographic and political forces that mean that Israel may be running out of time.Refreshingly direct, entirely non-partisan and frequently disturbing, this is essential reading for anyone who cares about the future of the Middle East and the wider world.

The neocon faithful diligently search for the good news out of Iraq, which they complain the media never covers - what London-based military analyst Dyer offers will be kryptonite to that crowd.There's not a speck of good news here, unless you're in al-Qaeda - or unless you take a very long view of history, in which case Dyer's consolation that by 2100, possibly even as early as 2050, Islamism will have quieted down. "Historically," he notes, "great religious revivals of this sort usually have a life cycle of one to two generations, and it's unlikely that this one will follow different rules." That said, he ventures the possibility that an Islamic Republic of Arabia may figure in the atlas in the near future, or an independent Kurdistan, or "almost anything you care to imagine." The United States will have nothing to say about the matter, he adds, because it "is going home hurt," shamed and broken in Iraq, having started off right in Afghanistan and gone wrong at every step thereafter. It may have to abandon Israel in retreat, largely because of "a growing desire on the part of the American public to have as little as possible to do with the perennial and intractable problems of the Middle East." This will definitely worsen matters in the region, which, in one set of scenarios Dyer presents, will be a very different place from the Middle East we know today. To name one possibility, in the wake of a crushing American defeat and the diminution of American influence in the world, a kinder, gentler Taliban will be back in power in Afghanistan, while Iraq will have disintegrated, Iran will be the dominant regional power and international law will lie bleeding.A lucid but grim accounting of the bites earned and yet to come by our government's having shaken up a hornet's nest. (Kirkus Reviews)

The Heart of the Messp. 5
Why Iraq?p. 35
The Threat to the Old Orderp. 67
The Future of Iraqp. 85
The Terrorist Bandwagonp. 113
Iran's Putative Bombp. 141
Not the Shia Crescent, the Islamist Revolutionariesp. 171
Israel's Dilemmap. 209
Crawling from the Wreckagep. 251
Indexp. 269
Table of Contents provided by Blackwell. All Rights Reserved.

ISBN: 9780300137354
ISBN-10: 0300137354
Audience: Professional
Format: Hardcover
Language: English
Published: 1st February 2008
Dimensions (cm): 22.7 x 14.8  x 2.82
Weight (kg): 0.512